Introduction, 1. — I. The problem of “explanation,” 3. — II. Shackle's hypothesis, 4. — III. An alternative hypothesis. The “most likely” gain outcome, 7. — IV. The “most likely” loss outcome, 15. — V. Evaluating net prospective satisfactions; “gambler preference maps,” 16. — VI. Holding money; alternative investments; marginal equalities, 19. — VII. Limitations, 24. — VIII. Business decisions, 25. — IX. Waves of optimism and pessimism, 27.
I. Introduction: the basic equation, 224. — II. Production one batch at a time; the length of the "production process" as the determinant of circular velocity, 226. — III. Production in overlapping batches; the intervals between successive payments; the relative timing of payment schedules; other determining factors, 230. — IV. Several different production processes; shifts in demand; new investment, 243. — V. "Idle" balances of cash; their effect on circular velocity; probably the chief source of short-period fluctuations in velocity, 251. — VI. The statistical data; inferences therefrom, 259. — VII. The related problem of working capital. Three definitions; the value of working capital, 264.
I. The major defects of our present monetary and banking system, 1.— II. The 100 per cent reserve plan; Professor Fisher's formulation, 4.— III. Objectives of Fisher's plan over time: reflation and retail price stabilization, 16.— IV. Summary of main criticisms of the 100 per cent proposals, 26.— V. An alternative plan; methods and objectives, 29.
Introduction, 39. — I. A simplified case; basic relations and equations, 39.— II. "Circular velocity" and "velocity of circulation, " 43. — III. The value of working capital, 47. — IV. The required stock of money; determinants of its circular velocity, 58. — V. Producers' goods and "equilibrium"; pure services; government finance, 67.— VI. Summary; available statistics, 72.
I. The American balance of payments, 1919–26, 388. — Wide but strikingly parallel fluctuations of net capital and commodity movements, 390. — The domestic situation, 393. — II. General analysis of the maintenance of equilibrium in international payments, 395. — The effects of importation, 399. — The correction of excesses is not equally rapid in all cases, nor does the "causal sequence" always proceed along the same lines, 407. — III. The effects of exportation, 412. — Imports and exports taken together, 416. — The correction of excesses; effects of the business cycle. If foreign trade is relatively unimportant, the correction of large excesses must wait on domestic cyclical movements, 422. — IV. Application of these conclusions to the United States, 423. — The period 1919–21, 424. — The period 1922–26, 429. — The changes in the net items of the American balance of payments have had little effect on internal conditions; and their origin has usually made them mutually offsetting, 432.
I. Introduction. — II. Analyses of post-war monetary experience. The purchasing-power-parity approach: Keynes, 268.—III. The foreign-exchange approach: Nogaro, 275; Nogaro's criticisms of Cassel's doctrine, 277. — IV. The approach through the budget situation: Rist, 280; further conclusions, 284. — V. Future monetary policies: Cassel, 286; Keynes, 287; Nogaro and Rist, 291.—VI. Conclusions. The data inconclusive; interpretation a matter of individual choice, 293. Monetary reconstruction: budget equilibrium; devaluation; return to the unregulated gold standard, 298.
I. Standards of consumption; recurring and non-recurring wants, 581. — II. Want intensities as fractional and time-dependent. The quantitative measurement of wants in the market, 588. — III. The determination of market demand schedules. The significance of the demand price index, 592. — IV. Summary of results. The scope of marginal-utility analysis; the maximization of satisfactions, 603.
The Review of Economics and Statistics194830(4), 259
LORD KEYNES died just ten years after publication of his great book, at very peak of his professional and public career. Both his death, and simultaneous conclusion of first Keynesian decade, make preparation of two volumes, here reviewed,' timely and a fitting tribute. No one man in history of economics had so great an effect upon minds and daily lives of so many people in so short a time as did Keynes. Although students have disagreed to a remarkable extent about which one of several possibilities is the crucial feature of Keynesian Revolution, and although Keynes operated in only certain fields of economics, reality of revolution itself is beyond discussion'. Both science and art of economics, at least within capitalist societies, have been permanently changed and one can only say enormously advanced by his work. With respect to major analytical concepts which Keynes developed or reformulated, it is almost as pointless to talk today of pro-Keynesians and anti-Keynesians as to say that particular individuals are for or against multiplication table. The shapes and values to be assigned to particular relations, such as that of consumption to income; particular analytical conclusions drawn, such as that concerning underemployment equilibrium; and above all resulting policy proposals, such as those concerning government deficit spending these are another matter, and have precipitated tremendous amounts of discussion. But very discussions themselves have been largely couched in Keynes' own terms, have been centered around his particular conceptions and formulations of problems in issue, and in their whole character have differed in remarkable degree from those of preceding periods. Dr. Klein's book is in main a restatement and defense of Keynes' ideas, done with almost religious enthusiasm but nonetheless on a high level of scholarship. I have already tried parts of it in a graduate class, and found it extremely useful. It covers, if not always systematically, whole range of Keynes' ideas on monetary and general economic analysis from his earliest writings, and touches on much of relevant work of others. Perhaps most illuminating sections are chapter on Keynes as a classical economist, especially sections on Treatise; summary of argument of General Theory; and technical Appendix. The first of these undertakes, and with great success, to build a continuous bridge of ideas from older forms of monetary theory to equations of Treatise, to explain each stage in terms of what had gone before, and to lead into foundations of General Theory. The Treatise equations are described as pretentious, and Hansen's criticism is of course admitted, but, it is argued (I think correctly) that they are not essential contribution of Treatise, and that their defects do not impair determinacy of prices in system which was here Keynes' main goal (pp. I 7, 24, and Appendix). The Appendix is especially interesting for its examination of Pigou's attempt to rehabilitate classical doctrine, at least for problems of long-run equilibrium. The other chapters consist in main of a relatively brief but excellent re-presentation of essential analytical argument of General Theory, largely as systematized and expanded by Keynes' followers (little is said of confusions and contradictions of General Theory itself!), and a series of reviews of certain of main controversies. Despite Dr. Klein's almost excessive zeal in defending Keynes at some points (cf. p. I 54), and despite a certain lack of integration and order (surely Chapter V is misplaced?), book is an important addition to literature because, though hardly exhaustive, it brings much of analytical content of Keynesian discussions together in a compact ' Seymour E. Harris, editor, The New Economics (New York, I947); Lawrence R. Klein, The Keynesian Revolution (New York, I947).