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What drives merger waves?

Journal of Financial Economics 2005 77(3), 529-560
Aggregate merger waves could be due to market timing or to clustering of industry shocks for which mergers facilitate change to the new environment. This study finds that economic, regulatory and technological shocks drive industry merger waves. Whether the shock leads to a wave of mergers, however, depends on whether there is sufficient overall capital liquidity. This macro-level liquidity component causes industry merger waves to cluster in time even if industry shocks do not. Market-timing variables have little explanatory power relative to an economic model including this liquidity component. The contemporaneous peak in divisional acquisitions for cash also suggests an economic motivation for the merger activity.

Correlated Order Flow: Pervasiveness, Sources, and Pricing Effects

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2005 40(1), 29-55
We examine the importance of indexing, industry, and broad market forces in driving common effects in order flow, returns, and trading costs. Common effects are strong for order flow and returns in a sample of S&P 500 stocks, but are weak in a sample of non-index stocks and for trading costs in both samples. Industry and broad market effects exist in order flow for both samples, but indexing effects are dominant. Correlated order flow drives common effects in returns and, to a lesser extent, those in trading costs. An event study of the effect of index addition on order flow and return comovement reinforces these conclusions. Our results show that common effects are not pervasive and have implications for diversification strategies and price formation models.