We explore the impact of weather on trading by individual investors. Over a time span of 94 months, we analyze daily trading records of individual investors. Controlling for various investor- and market-specific factors, we find a two-fold effect of weather. We first observe that investor sentiment, as measured by purchases relative to sales, is significantly higher on days with good weather. In addition, we find that retail investors generally trade more on bad weather days. This result is consistent with the notion that retail investors incur an opportunity cost for spending time trading on days with good weather.

We examine how adverse local experiences that are uninformative of future returns affect households’ investment behavior in the short term. Using data from a German online brokerage and a survey, we show that retail investors sharply reduce risk taking in response to nearby firm bankruptcies. Adjustments in risk taking occur through immediate and transitory increases in trading, and work through more pessimistic expectations about aggregate stock returns and increased risk aversion. Changes in background risks or wealth effects cannot explain our findings. Extrapolation from local experiences to aggregate expectations is inconsistent with optimal use of full or limited information.