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Who makes on-the-run Treasuries special?

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2011 20(4), 620-632
The most recently issued, on-the-run, Treasuries are extremely liquid and frequently trade at a premium in both the cash and repo, or financing, markets. Previous research suggests that both the cash and repo premiums reflect demand from buy-and-hold investors who value the superior liquidity of these securities and are reluctant to lend them in the repo market. We find evidence that premiums in the repo market are also closely related to market participants’ demand to hedge interest rate risk associated with their holdings of fixed income securities.

On the Asset Market View of Exchange Rates

Review of Financial Studies 2020 33(1), 239-260 open access
If the asset market is complete, then the difference between foreign and domestic agents’ log intertemporal marginal rates of substitution (IMRSs) equals the log change in the real exchange rate. This equation is frequently used to argue that changes in real exchange rates reflect differences between agents’ required compensation for exposure to asset return uncertainty. We show that the relative returns on frictionlessly traded assets are only reflected in the common component of agents’ IMRSs, not in differences. Instead, when this equation does offer insights, frictions in the goods market are the source of economic distinction between agents. Received December 10, 2013; editorial decision November 5, 2018 by Editor Geert Bekaert.

Trading in derivatives when the underlying is scarce

Journal of Financial Economics 2014 111(3), 589-608
Regulatory restrictions and market frictions can constrain the aggregate quantity of long and short positions in a security. When these constraints bind, we refer to the security as scarce, and its price becomes distorted relative to its value in a frictionless market. We show that an otherwise redundant derivative can reduce the price distortion of the underlying security by relaxing its scarcity. We also show that it is especially important to analyze the underlying and derivative markets jointly when evaluating the impact of regulation, such as short-sales bans and position limits in derivatives, that restricts trade.

Crash Risk in Currency Returns

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2018 53(1), 137-170
We develop an empirical model of bilateral exchange rates. It includes normal shocks with stochastic variance and jumps in an exchange rate and in its variance. The probability of a jump in an exchange rate corresponding to depreciation (appreciation) of the U.S. dollar is increasing in the domestic (foreign) interest rate. The probability of a jump in variance is increasing in the variance only. Jumps in exchange rates are associated with announcements; jumps in variance are not. On average, jumps account for 25% of currency risk. The dollar carry index retains these features. Options suggest that jump risk is priced.

The Cost of Short‐Selling Liquid Securities

Journal of Finance 2013 68(2), 637-664 open access
Standard models of liquidity argue that the higher price for a liquid security reflects the future benefits that long investors expect to receive. We show that short‐sellers can also pay a net liquidity premium if their cost to borrow the security is higher than the price premium they collect from selling it. We provide a model‐free decomposition of the price premium for liquid securities into the net premiums paid by both long investors and short‐sellers. Empirically, we find that short‐sellers were responsible for a substantial fraction of the liquidity premium for on‐the‐run Treasuries from November 1995 through July 2009.