This paper shows for 1929–2003 U.S. data and also for international G-7 data that the ratio of share prices to GDP tracks a large fraction of the variation over time in expected returns on the aggregate stock market, capturing more of that variation than do price–earnings and price–dividend ratios and often also providing additional information about excess returns. The price–output ratio tracks long-term U.S. cumulative stock returns almost as well as the cay-ratio of Lettau and Ludvigson [2001a. Journal of Finance 56, 815–849, 2005. Journal of Financial Economics 76, 583–626], although the cay-ratio tracks variation in U.S. excess returns better. The price–output ratio, however, involves no parameter estimation and is easily constructed for non-U.S. countries.

We show that macroeconomic growth at the end of the year (fourth quarter or December) strongly influences expected returns on risky financial assets, whereas economic growth during the rest of the year does not. We find this pattern for many different asset classes, across different time periods, and for US and international data. We also show that movements in the surplus consumption ratio of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), a theoretically well-founded measure of time-varying risk aversion linked to macroeconomic growth, influence expected returns stronger during the fourth quarter than the other quarters of the year. Our findings suggest that expected returns, risk aversion, and economic growth are particularly related at the end of the year, when we also expect consumers׳ portfolio adjustments to be concentrated.

Using a large panel data set containing detailed information on educational attainments as well as financial and socioeconomic variables for individual investors, we show that economists are more likely to hold stocks than otherwise identical investors. First, we consider the change in stockholdings associated with (i) completing an economics education and (ii) an economist moving into the household. Second, we model stock market participation using a probit model with unobserved individual heterogeneity. Third, instrumental variables estimation allows us to identify the causal effect of an economics education on stock market participation. Throughout, we focus explicitly on the effect of a change in educational status on the likelihood of holding stocks.

We show that dividend-growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our findings suggest that the apparent lack of dividend predictability in the United States does not uniformly extend to other countries. Rather, cross-country patterns in dividend predictability are driven by differences in firm characteristics and the extent to which dividends are smoothed.

We quantify the importance to mutual fund flows of affiliation between funds and their distributors. Bank failures create exogenous variation in retail customers’ exposure to bank-affiliated mutual funds. When a bank fails, its customers are moved to other banks that distribute their own affiliated mutual funds. Following such exogeneous bank shifts, customers sell their fund holdings and replace them with funds affiliated with their new banks. Customers react sequentially over time. After 4 years, a third of customers’ investments have been reallocated. In spite of large reallocations, investors do not end up with better-performing fund portfolios.