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Anticipated and Repeated Shocks in Liquid Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2013 26(8), 1890-1912
[We show that Treasury security prices in the secondary market decrease significantly in the few days before Treasury auctions and recover shortly thereafter, even though the time and amount of each auction are announced in advance. These results are linked to dealers' limited risk-bearing capacity and end-investors' imperfect capital mobility, highlighting the important role of frictions even in very liquid financial markets. Our results imply a hidden issuance cost to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, estimated to be 9 to 18 bps of the auction size, or over half a billion dollars for the issuance size in 2007.]

Collateral-Motivated Financial Innovation

Review of Financial Studies 2014 27(10), 2961-2997
Collateral frictions have a profound effect on our economic landscape, ranging from the design of financial securities, laws, and institutions, to various rules and regulations. We analyze a model with disagreement, where securities and collateral requirements are endogenous. It shows that the security that isolates the variable with disagreement is “optimal” in the sense that alternative securities cannot generate any trading. In an economy with N states, investors may introduce more than N securities, and markets are still incomplete. The model has several novel predictions on the behavior of basis—the spread between the prices of an asset and its replicating portfolio.

Issuance overpricing of China's corporate debt securities

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 144(1), 328-346 open access
We document issuance overpricing of corporate debt securities in China, which is robust across subsamples with different credit ratings, maturities, and issuers. This phenomenon contrasts with underpricing of equity and debt securities in Western countries and reflects China's distinct institutional environment. The average overpricing dropped from 7.44 basis points to 2.41 basis points after the government prohibited underwriters from using rebates in issuances in October 2017. By analyzing overpricing before and after the rebate ban and across different issuers and underwriters, we uncover two channels for underwriters, who compete for future underwriting business, to drive up overpricing: rebates and self-purchases.

Anticipated and Repeated Shocks in Liquid Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2013 26(8), 1891-1912
We show that Treasury security prices in the secondary market decrease significantly in the few days before Treasury auctions and recover shortly thereafter, even though the time and amount of each auction are announced in advance. These results are linked to dealers' limited risk-bearing capacity and end-investors' imperfect capital mobility, highlighting the important role of frictions even in very liquid financial markets. Our results imply a hidden issuance cost to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, estimated to be 9 to 18 bps of the auction size, or over half a billion dollars for the issuance size in 2007.

Under-reaction in the sovereign CDS market

Journal of Banking & Finance 2021 130, 106191
The sovereign CDS market has developed rapidly for two decades and currently has a gross notional amount of more than a trillion dollars. We document a strong momentum effect in this market, which cannot be explained by a large set of risk factors. These momentum returns are positively skewed and higher during recessions. Consistent with the interpretation that this momentum effect is due to investors’ initial underreaction to sovereign credit information followed by corrections, our evidence shows that the momentum returns tend to be higher during the months surrounding announcements of credit rating or outlook changes of the underlying countries.

Is There Investment Value in the Soft-Dollar Arrangement? Evidence from Mutual Funds

Review of Financial Studies 2023 36(8), 3122-3162
Combining novel data on analyst employment history and mutual fund commission payments, we show that client funds generate higher returns on stocks for which they have access to research by industry expert analysts. The outperformance is greater when funds are more important clients and cannot be attributed to tipping. Client funds place modestly higher weights on stocks covered by industry expert analysts and allocate more commissions to brokers providing such coverage. For identification, we exploit exogenous analyst coverage disruptions. Our findings contribute to the debate on whether mutual funds obtain any investment value from access to analysts through the soft-dollar arrangement.