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Requiem for a Market: An Analysis of the Rise and Fall of a Financial Futures Constract

Review of Financial Studies 1989 2(1), 1-23
[Futures contracts often include a variety of delivery options that allow participants flexibility in satisfying the contract. These options have the potential to broaden the appeal of the contract. However, if these options are valuable, they may reduce the hedging effectiveness of the contract. This article analyzes the GNMA CDR futures contract that appears to have failed because of flaws in the contract's design. For the first 6 years following its introduction, the contract attracted significant and increasing volume, but, subsequently, the volume declined to almost zero. Over the years during which the volume experienced its most dramatic decline, the Treasury-bond futures contract provided a better hedge for current coupon GNMA securities than did the GNMA CDR futures contract. And, over this same period, the value of the quality option embedded in the contract often exceeded 5 percent of the futures price and reached a level of 19 percent at one point. We interpret the evidence to indicate that the contract failed because the delivery options reduced the hedging effectiveness of the contract for current coupon mortgage securities.]

Further evidence on the bank lending process and the capital-market response to bank loan agreements

Journal of Financial Economics 1989 25(1), 99-122
This paper investigates the hypothesis that bank loans convey information to the capital market regarding the value of the borrowing firm. Unlike previous researchers, we distinguished between new bank loans and loan renewals. For new loans, the excess stock return for borrowers around the loan announcement is not significantly different from zero. For favorable loan revisions, the excess return is significantly positive: for unfavorable revisions, it is significantly negative. We interpret these results to imply that banks play an important role as transmitters of information in capital markets, but new bank loans per se do not communicate information.

Requiem for a Market: An Analysis of the Rise and Fall of a Financial Futures Contract

Review of Financial Studies 1989 2(1), 1-23
Futures contracts often include a variety of delivery options that allow participants flexibility in satisfying the contract. These options have the potential to broaden the appeal of the contact. However, if these options are valuable, they may reduce the hedging effectiveness of the contract. This article analyzes the GNMA CDR futures contract that appears to have failed because of flaws in the contract's design. For the first 6 years following its introduction, the contract attracted significant and increasing volume, but, subsequently, the volume declined to almost zero. Over the years during which the volume experienced its most dramatic decline, the Treasury-bond futures contract provided a better hedge for current coupon GNMA securities than did the GNMA CDR futures contract. And, over this same period, the value of the quality option embedded in the contract often exceeded 5 percent of the futures price and reached a level of 19 percent at one point. We interpret the evidence to indicate that the contract failed because the delivery options reduced the hedging effectiveness of the contract for current coupon mortgage securities.