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Unlikely sabotage: Comment on Bloomfield, Marvão, and Spagnolo

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2023 76(2-3), 101606
Bloomfield, Marvão, and Spagnolo (2023) establish an interesting yet puzzling finding: Firms in concentrated industries that form cartels are more likely to use relative performance evaluation (RPE) compensation arrangements for their top managers. The paper interprets this as evidence that cartel members constrain managers' incentives to engage in costly sabotage when their compensation depends on their peer firms' performance. I argue that successful costly sabotage to gain an RPE advantage is extremely unlikely and that costly sabotage is more likely among cartel firms than non-cartel firms. It therefore is an unlikely explanation of the paper's main finding. I propose an alternative explanation, that RPE benchmarks include firms that are not cartel member firms.

The future of financial fraud

Journal of Corporate Finance 2021 66, 101694 open access
Is financial fraud becoming a bigger or smaller problem over time? Current empirical approaches to this question generate mixed inferences. As an alternative, I use two theoretical constructs that isolate several factors that motivate fraud, and use them to consider the impact of technological and wealth changes over time. Some changes, such as an increase in anonymity in some financial transactions, facilitate new fraud innovations and increase the possibility of fraud. The COVID-19 pandemic and resulting economic shutdown has fostered major disruptions in relative demands and organizational capital that also increase the likelihood of fraud over the next few years. Viewed over a longer time scale, however, the majority of technological and wealth changes seem likely to increase the use and effectiveness of reputational capital, third-party enforcement, and ethical motivations as fraud deterrents. I predict that, on net, these changes will drive a long-term decrease in the incidence of fraud.

The Relation Between Price Changes and Trading Volume: A Survey

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1987 22(1), 109
This paper reviews previous and current research on the relation between price changes and trading volume in financial markets, and makes four contributions. First, two empirical relations are established: volume is positively related to the magnitude of the price change and, in equity markets, to the price change per se. Second, previous theoretical research on the price-volume relation is summarized and critiqued, and major insights are emphasized. Third, a simple model of the price-volume relation is proposed that is consistent with several seemingly unrelated or contradictory observations. And fourth, several directions for future research are identified.

A Theory of Trading Volume

Journal of Finance 1986
A theory of trading volume is developed based on assumptions that market agents frequently revise their demand prices and randomly encounter potential trading partners. The model describes two distinct ways informational events affect trading volume. One is consistent with conjectures made by empirical researchers that investor disagreement leads to increased trading. But the observation of abnormal trading volume does not necessarily imply disagreement, and volume can increase even if investors interpret the information identically, if they also have had divergent prior expectations. Simulation tests support the model and are used to contrast the random-pairing environment with costless market clearing. Volume is lower in the costly market, and volume increases caused by an informational event persist after the event period. This is consistent with existing empirical evidence and suggests that markets do not immediately clear all orders or that investors have demands to recontract.

A Theory of Trading Volume

Journal of Finance 1986 41(5), 1069-1087
A theory of trading volume is developed based on assumptions that market agents frequently revise their demand prices and randomly encounter potential trading partners. The model describes two distinct ways informational events affect trading volume. One is consistent with conjectures made by empirical researchers that investor disagreement leads to increased trading. But the observation of abnormal trading volume does not necessarily imply disagreement, and volume can increase even if investors interpret the information identically, if they also have had divergent prior expectations. Simulation tests support the model and are used to contrast the random‐pairing environment with costless market clearing. Volume is lower in the costly market, and volume increases caused by an informational event persist after the event period. This is consistent with existing empirical evidence and suggests that markets do not immediately clear all orders or that investors have demands to recontract.

Public versus Private Initiative in Arctic Exploration: The Effects of Incentives and Organizational Structure

Journal of Political Economy 2001 109(1), 38-78
From 1818 to 1909, 35 government and 57 privately funded expeditions sought to locate and navigate a Northwest Passage, discover the North Pole, and make other significant discoveries in Arctic regions. Most major Arctic discoveries were made by private expeditions. Most tragedies were publicly funded. Public expeditions were better funded than their private counterparts yet lost more ships, experienced poorer crew health, and had more men die. Public expeditions’ poor performance is not attributable to differences in objectives, available technologies, or country of origin. Rather, it reflects a tendency toward poor leadership structures, slow adaptation to new information, and perverse incentives.

Do Takeover Defense Indices Measure Takeover Deterrence?

Review of Financial Studies 2017 30(7), 2359-2412
Many researchers use the G-index or E-index to measure firms' takeover defenses. Others argue that these indices are not related to firms' takeover likelihoods. We find that, unlike their raw values, the instrumented versions of these indices are significantly and negatively related to acquisition likelihood. The difference between the raw and instrumented results indicates that the G-index and E-index include an endogenous component and highlights the importance of accounting for endogeneity in tests that use takeover indices to measure takeover deterrence. We provide data on new instruments that researchers can use to address these issues.

Do pills poison operating performance?

Journal of Corporate Finance 2006 12(3), 536-559
Contrary to arguments that poison pills degrade firm performance, we find that operating performance modestly improves during the 5-year period after pill adoption. Performance improvements are present in a wide range of firms, and are independent of adoption year and whether the firm is R&D intensive. Although recent arguments suggest that the protection offered by pills is strongest when combined with a staggered board, the performance changes also are unrelated to board structure. This evidence undermines the widely held view that poison pills have systematically negative effects on firm performance.