Journal Article Short-Run Models and Long-Run Forecasts: A Note on the Permanence of Output Fluctuations Get access Joseph E. Gagnon Joseph E. Gagnon Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Search for other works by this author on: Oxford Academic Google Scholar The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Volume 103, Issue 2, May 1988, Pages 415–424, https://doi.org/10.2307/1885122 Published: 01 May 1988