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Less Mainstream Credit, More Payday Borrowing? Evidence from Debt Collection Restrictions

Journal of Finance 2023 78(1), 63-103
Governments regulate debt collectors to protect consumers from predatory practices. These restrictions may lower repayment, reducing the supply of mainstream credit and increasing demand for alternative credit. Using individual credit record data and a difference‐in‐differences design comparing consumers in states that tighten restrictions on debt collection to those in neighboring states that do not, I find that restricting collections reduces access to mainstream credit and increases payday borrowing. These findings provide new evidence of substitution between alternative and mainstream credit and point to a trade‐off between shielding consumers from certain collection practices and pushing them into higher cost payday lending markets.

Financial inclusion, economic development, and inequality: Evidence from Brazil

Journal of Financial Economics 2024 156, 103854 open access
We study a financial inclusion policy targeting Brazilian cities with low bank branch coverage using data on the universe of employees from 2000–2014. The policy leads to bank entry and to similar increases in both deposits and lending. It also fosters entrepreneurship, employment, and wage growth, especially for cities initially in banking deserts. These gains are not shared equally and instead increase with workers’ education, implying a substantial increase in wage inequality. The changes in inequality are concentrated in cities where the initial supply of skilled workers is low, indicating that talent scarcity can drive how financial development affects inequality.

Financial development and labor market outcomes: Evidence from Brazil

Journal of Financial Economics 2022 143(1), 550-568
We estimate the effect of increased access to bank credit on the employment and wages of high- and low-skilled workers. To do so, we consider a bankruptcy reform that led to an expansion of bank credit to Brazilian firms. We use administrative data and exploit cross-sectional variation in the enforcement of the new legislation arising from differences in the congestion of civil courts. We find that the credit expansion led to an increase in the skill intensity of firms and in within-firm returns to skill and to a reallocation of skilled labor from financially unconstrained firms to constrained firms. To rationalize these findings, we design a model in which heterogeneous producers face constraints in their ability to borrow and have production functions featuring capital-skill complementarity. We use this framework to generate an industry-level measure of capital-skill complementarity, which we use to provide direct evidence that the effect of access to credit on skill utilization and the skill premium is driven by a relative complementarity between capital and skilled labor.

Mortgage Lock‐In, Mobility, and Labor Reallocation

Journal of Finance 2024 79(6), 3729-3772 open access
We study the impact of rising mortgage rates on mobility and labor reallocation. Using individual‐level credit record data and variation in the timing of mortgage origination, we show that a 1 percentage point decline in the difference between mortgage rates locked in at origination and current rates reduces moving by 9% overall and 16% between 2022 and 2024, and this relationship is asymmetric. Mortgage lock‐in also dampens flows in and out of self‐employment and the responsiveness to shocks to nearby employment opportunities that require moving, measured as wage growth within a 50‐ to 150‐mile ring and instrumented with a shift‐share instrument.