We build and test a Bayesian model that shows how investors revise their earnings persistence expectations after dividend announcements. When dividend changes confirm preceding earnings changes, our model predicts inverse u‐shaped investor revisions conditional on the prior expectations for noisy dividend signals. As the dividend signal becomes more informative, our model predicts that investor revisions will become more skewed converging to a monotonically decreasing relation for perfectly informative dividend signals. When dividend changes contradict preceding earnings changes, our model predicts u‐shaped investor revisions. In empirical tests, we find results generally consistent with our model predictions.

Based on individual CDS transactions cleared by the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, we show that illiquidity strongly affects credit default swap premiums. We identify the following effects: first, transaction direction affects prices, as buy (sell) orders lead to premium increases (decreases). Second, larger transactions have a higher price impact. This finding stands in stark contrast to corporate bond markets. Third, traders charge higher premiums as a price for liquidity provision, not as compensation for asymmetric information. Fourth, buy-side investors pay significantly higher prices than dealers for demanding liquidity. Finally, inventory risk seems to matter little in explaining liquidity premiums.