The effect that voluntarily disclosed managers' earnings forecasts have on the security prices of the announcing firms and other firms in the same industry is examined. The results are consistent with information content in managers' forecasts and with information transfer between forecast firms and other firms in the industry. These inferences are drawn from firms' abnormal returns computed from single- and two-index pricing models - where the latter includes market and industry indexes. Interestingly, while a positive information transfer is evident with market model residuals, once industry cross-sectional covariation in firms' returns is removed, no directional relation is apparent.

This paper investigates the resiliency of the new-issue high-yield bond market by examining the changes in implied default rates of such bonds before and after the largest high-yield bond default, i.e., the LTV bankruptcy. Specifically, the paper compares implied default probabilities of high-yield bonds during the post-LTV period calculated from actual new-issue yields with instrumental default probabilities calculated on the assumption that the default had not occurred. A comparison of these probabilities reveals that the market's perception of default on the high risk segment of the bond market increased significantly after the LTV bankruptcy. However, the effect was transitory, lasting only six months. Thus, the market was resilient to a major default.

ABSTRACT This paper investigates the resiliency of the new‐issue high‐yield bond market by examining the changes in implied default rates of such bonds before and after the largest high‐yield bond default, i.e., the LTV bankruptcy. Specifically, the paper compares implied default probabilities of high‐yield bonds during the post‐LTV period calculated from actual new‐issue yields with instrumental default probabilities calculated on the assumption that the default had not occurred. A comparison of these probabilities reveals that the market's perception of default on the high risk segment of the bond market increased significantly after the LTV bankruptcy. However, the effect was transitory, lasting only six months. Thus, the market was resilient to a major default.