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State-Dependent Variations in the Expected Illiquidity Premium

Review of Finance 2017 21(6), 2277-2314
Abstract Recent evidence on state-dependent variations in market liquidity suggests strong variations in the illiquidity premium across economic states. Adopting a two-state Markov switching model, we find that, while illiquid stocks are affected more by economic conditions than liquid ones are during recessions, the differences in expected returns are relatively small during expansions. Therefore, the expected illiquidity premium displays strong state-dependent variations that are countercyclical. We show that the state of a high illiquidity premium is closely associated with periods of real economic recessions, market declines, and high volatility, which coincides with major events of liquidity dry-up and high liquidity commonality.

Aggregate lapsation risk

Journal of Financial Economics 2024 155, 103819 open access
We study aggregate lapsation risk in the life insurance sector. We construct two lapsation risk factors that explain a large fraction of the common variation in lapse rates of the 30 largest life insurance companies. The first is a cyclical factor that is positively correlated with credit spreads and unemployment, while the second factor is a trend factor that correlates with the level of interest rates. Using a novel policy-level database from a large life insurer, we examine the heterogeneity in risk factor exposures based on policy and policyholder characteristics. Young policyholders with higher health risk in low-income areas are more likely to lapse their policies during economic downturns. We explore the implications for hedging and valuation of life insurance contracts . Ignoring aggregate lapsation risk results in mispricing of life insurance policies. The calibrated model points to overpricing on average. In the cross-section, young, low-income, and high-health risk households face higher effective mark-ups than the old, high-income, and healthy.

Economic shock, owner-manager incentives, and corporate restructuring: Evidence from the financial crisis in Korea

Journal of Corporate Finance 2010 16(3), 333-351
We examine how owner-managers incentives and firm-specific measures of corporate governance affect restructuring decisions during an economy-wide shock. Using a large sample of Korean firms that had experienced a severe financial crisis during 1997–1998, we find that the likelihood of restructuring is negatively related to the divergence of cash flow rights and control rights of controlling shareholders, and that the announcements of restructuring by chaebol firms with such divergence are greeted more negatively by investors. However, firm-specific measures of corporate governance such as total debt, bank loans, and equity ownership by unaffiliated financial institutions mitigate these negative effects, thereby influencing firms to choose value-maximizing restructuring policies. Our results suggest that the controlling shareholders' incentives to expropriate other investors are high during an economic shock. Our results also highlight the importance of corporate governance in mitigating such expropriation incentives, and provide important implications for the role of corporate governance during an economic shock, such as the 2007–2008 global financial crisis.

Bullish/bearish/neutral strategies under short sale restrictions

Journal of Banking & Finance 2016 71, 227-239
This study investigates the effects of short sale restrictions by extending the model of Dridi and Germain (2004) and infers informed traders’ strategies and the relation between order imbalance and price thereunder. The results are generally in line with the empirical evidence documented in the literature and are summarized as follows: First, seller-initiated trading incurs a greater price reaction. Second, short sale restrictions shift the skewness of asset returns. Third, the restrictions can stimulate investors to acquire information or increase each individual trader's order flow under the bullish and neutral signals as well as the bearish signal, which is yet to be explored empirically.

Corporate governance and the profitability of insider trading

Journal of Corporate Finance 2016 40, 235-253
This paper examines the influence of corporate governance systems on insiders' ability to profit from their information advantage and the ways through which corporate governance systems influence such ability. We find that corporate governance significantly reduces the profitability of insider sales but not that of insider purchases. Given that sales involve greater legal risk than purchases, the results suggest that well-governed firms restrict informed insider trading mainly to reduce legal risk. We also find that better-governed firms reduce the profitability of insider sales by increasing the likelihood of adopting ex-ante preventive measures (e.g., voluntary insider trading restriction policies), implementing such measures more effectively, and taking ex-post disciplinary actions more actively. These results highlight how better-governed firms are able to restrict insiders from exploiting private information.

Business Groups and Tunneling: Evidence from Private Securities Offerings by Korean Chaebols

Journal of Finance 2006 61(5), 2415-2449 open access
ABSTRACT We examine whether equity‐linked private securities offerings are used as a mechanism for tunneling among firms that belong to a Korean chaebol. We find that chaebol issuers involved in intragroup deals set the offering prices to benefit their controlling shareholders. We also find that chaebol issuers (member acquirers) realize an 8.8% (5.8%) higher (lower) announcement return than do other types of issuers (acquirers) if they sell private securities at a premium to other member firms, and if the controlling shareholders receive positive net gains from equity ownership in issuers and acquirers. These results are consistent with tunneling within business groups.