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Global liquidity, house prices and policy responses

Journal of Financial Stability 2019 43, 79-96
The paper investigates the impact of global liquidity on house prices around the world using a novel proxy measured by the funding availability to global banks in the main financial centers. We find supporting evidence that global conditions from the financial centers are transmitted to local banks through bank flows. Focusing on the repo markets in the US, Europe, and the UK, over the period 2000–2014 and using a panel VAR, we find that liquidity shocks impact house prices in both emerging and advanced economies. However, countries’ exposure to liquidity shocks can be mitigated by monetary policy, and by various general and house market specific macroprudential policies. We document strikingly different effectiveness of these policies in advanced and emerging markets.

Money Demand, the Cagan Model and the Inflation Tax: Some Latin American Evidence

The Review of Economics and Statistics 1993 75(1), 32
This paper examines the demand for money under conditions of very high inflation in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chi le, and Peru during the 1970s and 1980s. The authors test whether the monetary and inflationary experiences of these countries can be adequately characterized by the Cagan (1956) model, using an econometric procedure that is not reliant on any particular assumpti on concerning expectations formation except that forecasting errors are stationary. The authors also examine the importance of foreign asset substitution in domestic portfolios and the hypothesis that monetary policy was tantamount to maximization of the inflation tax revenue before testing the rational expectations hypothesis.

Expropriation risk by block holders, institutional quality and expected stock returns

Journal of Corporate Finance 2017 45, 122-149 open access
We study the asset pricing implications arising from imperfect investor protection using a new governance measure. This is defined as the product of institutional quality in a country and the proportion of free float shares, which captures the impact of controlling block holders. Using monthly returns of 4756 blue chip firms from 50 international equity markets for 13years, we show through tests of variants of the augmented-CAPM, that a two factor CAPM augmented with a factor mimicking portfolio based on our new investor protection metric yields the highest explanatory power, especially for markets that exhibit true variation in ownership types.

Foreign investors, firm level productivity, and European economic integration

Journal of Corporate Finance 2024 85, 102564 open access
Using a comprehensive sample of listed and unlisted firms from 34 European countries, we study firm-level manufacturing outcomes conditioned on foreign investment, country characteristics, and EU membership. Higher foreign ownership is associated with higher productivity but lower employment, particularly when the host or source country is an EU member and scores high on disclosure and investor protection, and low on corruption. We confirm our interpretation using staggered EU accession dates and industry-level external financial dependence interacted with a financial crisis. The subset of Eastern European countries appears to benefit from foreign investment and EU accession without losing jobs. Nevertheless, manufacturing outcomes associated with survey findings on public sentiment towards globalization and migration confirm the social and political costs of globalization.