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Growing Through Cycles

Econometrica 1999 67(2), 335-347 open access
The neoclassical growth model focuses on factor accumulation as an engine of growth, while the neo-Schumpetarian growth model stresses innovation. This paper argues that these two views of growth may capture different phases of a single growth experience. In the model presented below, the balanced growth path is unstable and the economy achieves sustainable growth through cycles under an empirically plausible condition, perpetually moving back and forth between two phases. One phase is characterized by higher output growth, higher investment, no innovation, and a competitive market structure. The other phase is characterized by lower output growth, lower investment, high innovation, and a more monopolistic market structure. Both investment and innovation are essential in sustaining growth indefinitely, and yet they move in an asynchronized way; only one of them appears to play a dominant role in each phase. The economy grows faster along the cycles than along the Zunstable. balanced growth path.

Efficiency and Equilibrium with Dynamic Increasing Aggregate Returns due to Demand Complementarities

Econometrica 1999 67(3), 499-525
When do dynamic nonconvexities at the disaggregate level translate into dynamic nonconvexities at the aggregate level? We address this question in a framework where the production of differentiated intermediate inputs is subject to dynamic nonconvexities, and we show that the answer depends on the degree of Hicks-Allen complementarity Žsub-stitutability. between differentiated inputs. In our simplest model, a generalization of Judd Ž 1985. and Grossman and Helpman Ž 1991. among many others, there are dynamic nonconvexities at the aggregate level if and only if differentiated inputs are Hicks-Allen complements. We also compare dynamic equilibrium and optimal allocations in the presence of aggregate dynamic nonconvexities due to Hicks-Allen complementarities between differentiated inputs.