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The Effect of Convertible Bond Equity Values on Dilution and Leverage.

The Accounting Review 1984 59(3), 419-431
A contingent claims valuation model is used to estimate the values of a sample of convertible bonds and to partition those values into their debt and equity portions. The model and market values of the bonds are compared and model estimates are found to be approximately unbiased relative to market values, with about 90 percent of the values within ten percent Of market values. The average equity values of the convertible bonds are found to constitute 16.7 percent and 18.4 percent of the book and market values of the bonds, respectively. When leverage and dilution measures for the sample are restated by excluding the estimated equity value of convertibles from debt, differences are small on average, but for some firms they are substantial. A comparison of reported earnings per share (EPS) with EPS using model equity values reveals that model EPS differs cross-sectionally from both primary and fully diluted EPS but is much closer on average to primary EPS. The findings of the study provide reason for optimism regarding applications of contingent claims models to practical valuation problems, particularly with regard to more meaningful measures of dilution of earnings and leverage.

Testing for incremental information content in the presence of collinearity

Journal of Accounting and Economics 1984 6(3), 205-217
A number of recent research papers use two-stage procedures in lieu of a single multiple regression, in some cases purportedly as a solution to colinearity among independent variables. We demonstrate that, since collinearity is inherently a data problem rather than a statistical problem, no partitions of dependent or independent variables, orthogonal or otherwise, can provide insights into the relative influence of collinear variables. For the class of linear unbiased estimators this follows directly from the Gauss-Markov Theorem, but we demonstrate some of the results in detail as an aid to interpreting particular papers.

Time-Separable Preferences and Intertemporal-Substitution Models of Business Cycles

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1984 99(4), 817
Time-separability of utility means that past work and consumption do not influence current and future tastes. This form of preferences does not restrict the size of intertemporal-substitution effects, but does place constraints on the relative responses of leisure and consumption to changes in relative prices and in permanent income. These constraints are important for evaluating the impact of shifts in expectations about the future, which play a key role in equilibrium models of the business cycle. Further, if consumption and effort are to be positively correlated over the cycle, then equilibrium theories with time-separable preferences predict a procyclical behavior for the real wage rate.

Informational Implications of Interest Rate Rules

American Economic Review 1984
Returning to a topic first systematically treated by Poole (1970) in a textbook Keynesian model, this paper compares interest rate and money supply rules. Our analysis, by contrast, is conducted within a rational expectations macro model that incorporates flexible prices and informational frictions. With differential information, interest rate targets can affect the information content of market prices and real activity, but these real consequences can always be replicated by an appropriately chosen money stock rule with feedback to economic activity. However, when the policy authority has incomplete information about the state of the economic system, it faces a discrete choice between an interest rate peg and strict money stock control. Depending on the parameters of the model, either of these policies may be optimal, given the informational constraints faced by the monetary authority.