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An Empirical Test of a Valuation Model for American Options on Futures Contracts

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1986 21(4), 377
Pricing models for American call and put options on futures contracts are derived herein. These models are used to investigate the efficiency of the market for options on Standard & Poor 500 and German Mark futures. The evidence presented here indicates that market prices for these options deviate substantially from their corresponding model prices. In addition, it is shown that a hedging strategy originated at prices that indicate a deviation of market from model is successful in translating the observed mispricing into excess profits after transactions costs. However, these net profits are eliminated if the origination of the strategy is delayed by one trade, or if bid-ask spreads are accounted for.

Valuation of Foreign Currency Options: Some Empirical Tests

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 1986 21(2), 145
This paper investigates the efficiency of the market for foreign currency options with the help of a modified version of the Black-Scholes model. The evidence in the ex post tests is inconsistent with this hypothesis since we find a large number of opportunities for abnormal profits. A second set of tests is conducted on an ex ante basis to determine whether these profit opportunities exist even if the execution of the strategy is delayed by one day. The evidence from these tests provides more support for the hypothesis of market efficiency.