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Short-Run Pain, Long-Run Gain: Financial Liberalization and Stock Market Cycles

Review of Finance 2008 12(2), 253-292 open access
Abstract The views on financial liberalization are quite conflictive. Many argue that it triggers financial bubbles and crises. Others claim that financial liberalization allows markets to function properly and capital to move to its most profitable destination. The empirical evidence on these effects is not robust. This paper constructs a new comprehensive chronology of financial liberalization and shows that a key reason for the inconclusive evidence is that the effects of liberalization are time-varying. Financial liberalization is followed by large booms and busts only in the short run. In the long run institutions improve and financial markets tend to stabilize.

Disclosure policy: A discussion of Leuz, Triantis and Wang (2008) on “going dark”

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2008 45(2-3), 209-220
LTW (2008) examine firms withdrawing from the SEC reporting system but continuing to trade on Pink Sheets. The paper finds that Sarbanes-Oxley increased the propensity of firms to go dark but, counter to conventional wisdom, had no significant effect on the rate of going-private transactions. Agency costs, as well as poor growth opportunities, proximity to financial distress, and increased compliance costs arising from SOX increase the propensity to go dark. Suggestions to improve the empirical implementation and interpretation involve including additional control and more suitable explanatory variables, and more attention to causation issues and to the quantification of economic significance.

The timing of industry and firm earnings information in security prices: A re-evaluation

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2008 45(1), 78-93
This paper re-evaluates evidence in Ayers and Freeman [Ayers, F., Freeman, R., 1997. Market assessment of industry and firm earnings information. Journal of Accounting and Economics 24, 205–218] suggesting that investors anticipate industry-wide components of earnings earlier than firm-specific components, and that post-earnings-announcement drift following annual earnings announcements is due primarily to firm-specific components of earnings. Our tests indicate that post-announcement drift is entirely attributable to coefficient bias due to measurement errors in the use of realized earnings changes as proxies for unexpected earnings. Also, coefficient differences in the market's anticipation of subsequent-year industry and firm-specific earnings become insignificant when we introduce suitable controls for non-linearity in the return/earnings relation.

Disclosure Quality and Management Trading Incentives

Journal of Accounting Research 2008 46(5), 1265-1296 open access
ABSTRACT This study examines whether managers strategically alter disclosure “quality” in response to personal incentives, specifically those derived from trading on their own account. Using changes in market liquidity to proxy for disclosure quality, I find that trading incentives are associated with disclosure quality choices. Tests are performed across three disclosure samples: management forecasts, conference calls, and press releases. Consistent with a desire to reduce the probability of litigation, I find evidence that managers provide higher quality disclosures before selling shares than they provide in the absence of trading. Consistent with a desire to maintain their information advantage, I find some, albeit weaker, evidence that managers provide lower quality disclosures prior to purchasing shares than they provide in the absence of trading.

Identification in Nonparametric Simultaneous Equations Models

Econometrica 2008 76(5), 945-978
This paper provides conditions for identification of functionals in nonparametric simultaneous equations models with nonadditive unobservable random terms. The conditions are derived from a characterization of observational equivalence between models. We show that, in the models considered, observational equivalence can be characterized by a restriction on the rank of a matrix. The use of the new results is exemplified by deriving previously known results about identification in parametric and nonparametric models as well as new results. A stylized method for analyzing identification, which is useful in some situations, is also presented.

Are corporate governance and bank monitoring substitutes: Evidence from the perceived value of bank loans

Journal of Corporate Finance 2008 14(4), 475-483
We extend the literature regarding the importance of corporate governance and bank monitoring by examining the association between loan announcement wealth effects and the corporate governance characteristics of the borrowers. Using a sample of over 800 commercial loan announcements over a period of more than 20 years we find that loan announcements are more likely to have positive wealth effects for firms with weak internal corporate governance. However, we also find that this relation between perceived bank monitoring and board independence and incentive-based pay exists only for firms with weak external governance, specifically the market for corporate control.

The expected value premium☆

Journal of Financial Economics 2008 87(2), 269-280
Fama and French [2002. The equity premium. Journal of Finance 57, 637–659] estimate the equity premium using dividend growth rates to measure expected rates of capital gain. We apply their method to study the value premium. From 1945 to 2005, the expected value premium is on average 6.1% per annum, consisting of an expected dividend growth component of 4.4% and an expected dividend price ratio component of 1.7%. Unlike the equity premium, the value premium has been largely stable over the last half century.

Market quality changes in the London Stock Market

Journal of Banking & Finance 2008 32(10), 2248-2253
This paper examines the impact that the introduction of a closing call auction had on market quality at the London Stock Exchange. Using estimates from the partial adjustment with noise model of Amihud and Mendelson [Amihud, Y., Mendelson, H., 1987. Trading mechanisms and stock returns: An empirical investigation. Journal of Finance 42, 533–553] we show that opening and closing market quality improved for participating stocks. When we stratify our sample securities into five groups based on trading activity we find that the least active securities experience the greatest improvements to market quality. A control sample of stocks are not characterized by discernable changes to market quality.

Mergers as Reallocation

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2008 90(4), 765-776
We model merger waves as reallocation waves, and argue that mergers spread new technology in a way that is similar to that of the entry and exit of firms. We focus on two periods: 1890–1930, during which electricity and the internal combustion engine spread through the U.S. economy, and 1970–2000—the Information Age. As the model implies, reallocation did rise during both epochs. The model also implies that exits should lead mergers during a transition, but this seems to have happened more emphatically in the electrification epoch.