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Culbertson on Interest Structure: Comment
Although current theory of the maturity structure of interest rates is in no sense complete or integrated, it is a far more acceptable body of doctrine than is indicated in John Culbertson's recent article.' It is true that since the theory exists only among the pages of scattered journal articles it is extremely difficult for one to form a correct perspective of its current status. Culbertson's article, while informative and interesting in its description of institutional demand for securities, does little to lessen this difficulty since it presents a description of the current theory that is both incomplete and, in places, incorrect. This note will set forth an interpretation of existing theory and will discuss Culbertson's theoretical treatment of expectations.2 Both because of its development and for expositional convenience, the theory will be discussed under two headings: expectations and uncertainty. The discussion of expectations refers to the influence on present interest rates of expected future rates while the discussion of uncertainty refers to the influence on present rates of uncertainty of future rates. The term expectations refers to a measure of central tendency and the terms uncertainty and risk both refer to measures of dispersion of an investor's subjective probability distribution of anticipated outcomes. Irving Fisher's statement concerning expectations -the present long rate is an average of expected short rates discounted over the life of the longest security assumes unanimous and certain expectations of future interest rates. The current version relating to expectations, developed by John Hicks,4 Nicholas Kaldor,5 Michal
The Estimation of Distributed Lags
Overtime Hours in American Industry
PpT HIS article is a first report on some aspects of a new program of collection on the number of overtime hours worked in industries in the manufacturing segment of the economy begun by the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics in January I956. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been collecting data on working hours a long time and currently publishes information on the length of the workweek in considerable industrial and geographical detail. The new program was initiated in response to the increasing attention being given to the changing length and structure of the workweek and to the need an additional sensitive indicator of current economic developments. As a major subject legislation and collective bargaining, the workweek has, of course, become a considerable element in affecting labor income and labor cost. As will be shown below, fully ten per cent of the average factory worker's paycheck in I956 was accounted by premium payments work outside the regular scheduled The workweek also has become an important mechanism short-run adjustments of labor supply and labor demand. Especially during the past I 5 years of comparatively high levels of economic activity and scarce manpower resources in many occupational fields, changing man-hour input by changing the number of hours rather than the number of men has offered considerable advantages. It has become a significant factor in current economic analysis. Recent studies show the workweek to be one of the lead series in cyclical changes. Finally, it has become an important item in projections and the building of models of future economic growth. The interactions of a decline in hours of work and increases in productivity, the impact of increasing leisure time on consumption patterns and levels are just two examples of the kinds of factors which have to be considered in any assessment of future trends. Two points should be made at the beginning of this report. First, this is a new collection program and the data so far cover only one year. Obviously, this finds various industries at different points in their seasonal cycles, at different stages in their long-run development, and, in many cases, with situations peculiar to various forces affecting the year I956. In general, this was a period of slight downturn both in employment of factory production workers and their over-all hours of work. All of this should be taken into account in assessing the data presented below. Second, the definitions employed by the BLS in its collection program on employment and hours are important to a clear understanding of the data. For information on the length of the workweek, the BLS asks the employer to report the number of hours worked or in the payroll period ending nearest the I5th of each month. The phrase paid is critical: A worker getting $2 an hour a 4o-hour week, but on vacation during the payroll week, is reported and counted at 4o hours with $8o pay. The BLS series, therefore, does not measure actual labor input or actual hours of work put in place. The definition or concept employed is nearer one of labor income (or cost) although it by no means includes all such items of income or cost. Excluded, example, are Christmas bonuses and other irregular payments to employees. For information on overtime hours the BLS asks the employer to report the number of hours for which premiums were because the hours were in excess of the number of hours of either the straight-time workday or workweek. Critical here is the word premiums. Overtime hours are counted only if a premium above the straight-time rate was whether it be extra hours during any working day, extra hours during any working week above those stipulated by the Fair Labor Standards Act or a collective bargaining agreement, work on what would otherwise be a holiday, etc. i. Although overtime averaged between 2 12 and 3 hours manufacturing as a whole in I956, there were significant and substantial differences among the various industries during the
The Accounting (Book).
Reviews the book "The Accounting," by Bruce Marshall.
Standard Costs, How they Serve Modern Management (Book).
Reviews the book "Standard Costs, How they Serve Modern Management," by Clinton W. Bennett.
THE IMPACT OF AUTOMATION ON THE FIELD OF ACCOUNTING.
Abstract The advent of electronics in record-keeping and data-processing has placed the office equipment industry in the most challenging, yet potentially rewarding, role in its history. And the same thing can be said for accountants. Electronics is a new mode of transportation. Because of its tremendous speed in carrying out the errands, the electron can take one just about anywhere, statistically speaking. This revolution in office procedures and data-processing, promises to do for man's mind what the industrial revolution did for his body. By harnessing the electron, one will be able to multiply a single clerical employee's efforts many times. In a few more years American business would have been figuratively snowed under by its ever mounting volume of paperwork. At the start of the 20th century, only one man in every 40 employees was a paper worker. With pen and ink as his chief tools, this early-day clerical was able to keep up with all of the demands placed on accounting by business.
The National Economic of Accounts of the United States (Book).
Reviews the book "The National Economic Accounts of the United States."
THE MASTER'S DEGREE WITH COURSES IN BUSINESS, YESTERDAY, TODAY, AND TOMORROW.
Abstract The article presents a study of several business schools offering master's degree in business in the U.S. The Master's degree is sometimes considered as terminal and sometimes as a foundation step toward the doctoral degree. The two objectives are usually well harmonized and actually there need not be too much difference between the requirements. For a long time, it has been recognized that many students of superior ability need financial assistance in order to go to college, and this is particularly true if they continue on beyond the first degree. In general, the schools have been holding scholarships for tuition, fellowships for larger amounts including room and board, assistantships with a little greater flexibility, teaching assistantships, teaching associateships and instructorships for top amounts. Since loans have to be paid back, often with interest, the student is reluctant to take a loan if he can secure the means some other way. The survey shows that as compared with seven years ago, the non-service type of grant is gaining and the requests for loan funds decreasing.
Introduction to Statistical Reasoning (Book).
Reviews the book "Introduction to Statistical Reasoning," by Philip J. McCarthy.