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Is hiring fast a good sign? The informativeness of job vacancy duration for future firm profitability

Review of Accounting Studies 2023 28(3), 1316-1353 open access
Job vacancy duration reflects the time a firm spends searching, selecting, and hiring for a job opening. Capturing vacancy duration using the creation and deletion dates of job postings by US public firms, we examine the informativeness of vacancy duration for future firm profitability. We find that while firms that quickly fill low-skill job vacancies exhibit higher future profitability, firms that take more time to fill high-skill jobs exhibit higher future profitability. Our cross-sectional analyses across the benefits and costs of candidate selection and performance expectations suggest that the informativeness of vacancy duration comes from its reflection of firms’ hiring strategies. That is, firms expecting higher profitability recruit more intensively to avoid the opportunity cost associated with vacancies for low-skill jobs and to ensure the selection of high-quality workers for high-skill jobs. Further analyses show that the implication of job vacancy duration for future profitability is not incorporated timely in the capital markets, as evidenced by pessimistic analyst forecasts and positive earnings announcement returns in future quarters for firms with short (long) durations for low-skill (high-skill) jobs. These results demonstrate the informativeness of job vacancy duration for firm profitability and advance the understanding of firms’ hiring strategies.

Relative performance evaluation and the timing of earnings release

Journal of Accounting and Economics 2019 67(2-3), 358-386
Relative performance evaluation (RPE) compensates managers on their relative performance against a peer group. Since observing more peers’ performance allows managers to better estimate the performance level required to achieve RPE targets, we conjecture that releasing earnings later than peers facilitates managers to achieve targets by exploiting last-minute reporting discretion. Empirical evidence is consistent with our conjecture. Further, managers tend to select peers that release earnings more timely and delay own firms’ earnings releases to be later than peers’ after RPE adoption. Our evidence suggests strategic timing of earnings release and discretionary reporting in response to relative performance evaluation.

Performance, Growth and Earnings Management

Review of Accounting Studies 2006 11(2-3), 305-334
We study the relationship between the amount of managed earnings and firms’ earnings performance and expected growth in a reporting model, where managers manipulate earnings to influence the valuation of firms’ equity while bearing a cost that is increasing and convex in the amount of managed earnings. In the unique revealing equilibrium to the model, firms with higher performance and growth over-report earnings by a larger amount because price responsiveness increases with earnings performance and growth. And earnings quality, defined as the proportion of true economic earnings in total reported earnings, increases with earnings performance but decreases with earnings growth. We conduct empirical tests on a large sample and a restatement sample using different proxies for earnings management. Results from the large sample tests support our predictions while results from the restatement sample tests are mixed. Our study provides an alternative explanation to the positive relationship between discretionary accruals estimated from the Jones model and firms’ performance and growth.

Earnings Non‐Synchronicity and Voluntary Disclosure

Contemporary Accounting Research 2013 30(4), 1560-1589
Earnings non‐synchronicity reflects the extent to which firm‐specific factors determine a firm's earnings. Prior research suggests that high earnings non‐synchronicity impedes corporate outsiders' ability to process information. This study examines the impact of earnings non‐synchronicity on managers' decisions to provide earnings forecasts. We propose that high earnings non‐synchronicity motivates managers to issue earnings forecasts to reduce information asymmetry between managers and investors and to preempt costly information acquisition by outsiders. Consistently, we find a positive relation between earnings non‐synchronicity and managers' propensity to issue earnings forecasts, particularly long‐horizon forecasts. This positive relation is weaker when earnings are easier to predict based on the firm's earnings history and is stronger when the firm has higher institutional ownership and greater analyst following. We also find that the market's reaction to management forecasts increases with earnings non‐synchronicity. Overall, the evidence suggests that managers voluntarily provide earnings forecasts to alleviate the adverse consequences of earnings non‐synchronicity. These findings provide a more complete picture about the impact of earnings non‐synchronicity on a firm's information environment, and highlight the effect of the nature of information asymmetry on voluntary disclosures.

The Association between Management Earnings Forecast Errors and Accruals

The Accounting Review 2009 84(2), 497-530
We investigate the association between errors in management forecasts of subsequent year earnings and current year accruals. In an uncertain operating environment, managers' assessments of their firms' business prospects are imperfect. Since managers' imperfect business assessments influence both accruals generation and earnings projection, we hypothesize that management earnings forecasts exhibit greater optimism (pessimism) when accruals are relatively high (low). Consistent with this hypothesis, we find a positive association between management earnings forecast errors and accruals. This positive association is stronger for firms operating in a more uncertain business environment and for firms in industries exhibiting greater covariation between accruals and growth-related activities. Moreover, this positive association is significant when accruals likely reflect managers' true beliefs about firms' business prospects, but is nonexistent when accruals are likely manipulated to boost managers' trading gains. Supplementary analysis reveals that the presence of management earnings forecasts does not significantly reduce accrual mispricing.

Relative Performance Evaluation and Related Peer Groups in Executive Compensation Contracts

The Accounting Review 2011 86(3), 1007-1043
This study examines the explicit use of relative performance evaluation (RPE) in executive compensation contracts and the selection of RPE peers. Using S&P 1500 firms’ first proxy disclosures under the SEC’s 2006 executive compensation disclosure rules, we find that about 25 percent of our sample firms explicitly use RPE in setting executive compensation. We demonstrate that a lack of knowledge of both actual peer-group composition and the link between RPE-based performance targets and future peer performance significantly hinder the traditional implicit test from detecting RPE use. We also find that firms consider both costs and benefits of RPE as an incentive mechanism when deciding to use RPE. Finally, both efficient contracting and rent extraction considerations influence RPE peer selection, with the relative importance of these competing considerations depending on RPE firms’ performance.