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Capital requirements for over-the-counter derivatives central counterparties

Journal of Banking & Finance 2015 52, 140-155
This paper assesses the sensitivity of the risk buffers, or capital requirements, of central counterparties clearing over-the-counter derivatives trades to a range of model inputs. It finds capital requirements to be highly sensitive to whether key model parameters are calibrated on a point-in-time versus stress-period basis, whether the risk tolerance metric adequately captures tail-risk events, and the ability – or lack thereof – to define exposures on the basis of netting sets spanning multiple risk factors. Our results suggest that there are considerable benefits from prudential authorities adopting a more prescriptive approach to central counterparties’ risk buffers, in line with recent enhancement of the capital regime for banks’ trading books.

Asset Pricing When Traders Sell Extreme Winners and Losers

Review of Financial Studies 2015
This study investigates the asset pricing implications of a newly documented refinement of the disposition effect, characterized by investors being more likely to sell a security when the magnitude of their gains or losses on it increases. I find that stocks with both large unrealized gains and large unrealized losses outperform others in the following month (trading strategy monthly alpha = 0.5–1%, Sharpe ratio = 1.5). This supports the conjecture that these stocks experience higher selling pressure, leading to lower current prices and higher future returns. Overall, this study provides new evidence that investors' trading behavior can aggregate to affect equilibrium price dynamics. Received March 10, 2014; accepted August 31, 2015 by Editor David Hirshleifer.

Active Ownership

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(12), 3225-3268
We analyze an extensive proprietary database of corporate social responsibility engagements with U.S. public companies from 1999-2009. Engagements address environmental, social, and governance concerns. Successful (unsuccessful) engagements are followed by positive (zero) abnormal returns. Companies with inferior governance and socially conscious institutional investors are more likely to be engaged. Success in engagements is more probable if the engaged firm has reputational concerns and higher capacity to implement changes. Collaboration among activists is instrumental in increasing the success rate of environmental/social engagements. After successful engagements, particularly on environmental/social issues, companies experience improved accounting performance and governance and increased institutional ownership.

Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift in Global Markets: Evidence from an Information Shock

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(4), 1242-1283
We investigate whether and how an exogenous and unprecedented improvement in non-U.S. firms' financial-reporting quality affects post-earnings-announcement drift (PEAD). We find that PEAD declines after the information shock, and this decrease is more pronounced for firms with fewer concurrent earnings announcements, greater institutional holdings, and lower limits to arbitrage. In addition, the decrease in PEAD is driven by firms with greater changes in financial reporting, an increase in analyst forecast accuracy and institutional ownership, and a decrease in limits to arbitrage. These findings support the mispricing explanation of PEAD, in particular the limited attention hypothesis, in an international setting.

Self-Exciting Jumps, Learning, and Asset Pricing Implications

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(3), 876-912
The paper proposes a self-exciting asset pricing model that takes into account co-jumps between prices and volatility and self-exciting jump clustering. We employ a Bayesian learning approach to implement real-time sequential analysis. We find evidence of self-exciting jump clustering since the 1987 market crash, and its importance becomes more obvious at the onset of the 2008 global financial crisis. We also find that learning affects the tail behaviors of the return distributions and has important implications for risk management, volatility forecasting, and option pricing.

Investment and CEO compensation under limited commitment

Journal of Financial Economics 2015 116(3), 452-472
We extend the neoclassical investment model (Hayashi, 1982) to allow for limited commitment on compensation contracts. We consider three types of limited commitment: (i) managers cannot commit to compensation contracts that provide lower continuation utility than their outside options; (ii) shareholders cannot commit to negative net present value (NPV) projects; (iii) both the managers and the shareholders cannot commit. We characterize the optimal contract under general convex adjustment cost functions and provide examples for which closed-form solutions can be obtained. We show that, as in the data, small firms invest more, grow faster, and have a higher Tobin׳s Q than large firms under the optimal contract. In addition, the pattern of the dependence of chief executive officer (CEO) compensation on past performance implied by our model is also consistent with empirical evidence.

New Evidence on the Financialization of Commodity Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(5), 1285-1311
This paper uses a novel dataset of commodity-linked notes (CLNs) to examine the impact of the flows of financial investors on commodity futures prices. Investor flows into and out of CLNs are passed to and withdrawn from the futures markets via issuers' trades to hedge their CLN liabilities. The flows are not based on information about futures price movements but nonetheless cause increases and decreases in commodity futures prices when they are passed through to and withdrawn from the futures markets. These finding are consistent with the hypothesis that non-information-based financial investments have important impacts on commodity prices.

Bank loan announcements and borrower stock returns before and during the recent financial crisis

Journal of Financial Stability 2015 21, 1-12
The impact of U.S. bank loan announcements on the stock prices of the corporate borrowers has been decreasing during the two last decades with estimated two-day cumulative abnormal returns slipping from almost 200 basis points in the beginning of the 1980s to close to zero by the turn of the Century. We estimate excess returns before and after the onset of the most recent financial crisis. We find that while prior to August 2007 returns were indeed close to zero, afterwards returns jump back up to around 200 basis points. We surmise that in a booming credit market the certification of corporate borrowers by banks started to play a lesser role, while during the crisis the banks’ role was revitalized. Consistent with this interpretation we find that after August 2007 excess returns increase especially for loans with a longer maturity, and for smaller, levered, less profitable or lowly rated firms.

Cross-listing, firm-specific information, and corporate governance: Evidence from Chinese A-shares and H-shares

Journal of Corporate Finance 2015 32, 347-362
We examine the impact of cross-listing on firm-specific information utilizing the unique features of the Chinese capital markets. By separating the trading activity of domestic Chinese investors from that of foreign non-Chinese investors, we are able to isolate each investor group's relative ability to impound firm-specific information into stock prices. We show that the cross-listed H-shares traded by foreign investors incorporate significantly more firm-specific information than their A-share counterparts traded by domestic Chinese investors. We find a similar pattern between H-shares and A-shares even after a 2007 regulatory change that allowed domestic Chinese investors to trade in the H-share market. This finding suggests that while institutional factors (e.g., stricter listing rules, stronger investor protection) can explain some of the benefits of cross-listing, foreign investors' ability to utilize firm-specific information plays a separate and distinct role in generating cross-listing benefits. The level of information improvement due to foreign investors depends on the quality of the cross-listed firm's corporate governance.