We develop a new test for conditional moment restrictions via nonparametric series regression, with approximating functions selected by Lasso. A key novelty of our approach is to account for the effect of the data-driven selection, yielding a new critical value constructed on the basis of a nonstandard truncated-Gaussian asymptotic approximation. We show that the test is correctly sized and attains a well-defined sense of adaptiveness that may result in better power than existing methods. The improvement afforded by the new test is demonstrated in a Monte Carlo study and an empirical application on the conditional evaluation of inflation forecasts.

This article proposes a test for the conditional superior predictive ability (CSPA) of a family of forecasting methods with respect to a benchmark. The test is functional in nature: under the null hypothesis, the benchmark’s conditional expected loss is no more than those of the competitors, uniformly across all conditioning states. By inverting the CSPA tests for a set of benchmarks, we obtain confidence sets for the uniformly most superior method. The econometric inference pertains to testing conditional moment inequalities for time series data with general serial dependence, and we justify its asymptotic validity using a uniform non-parametric inference method based on a new strong approximation theory for mixingales. The usefulness of the method is demonstrated in empirical applications on volatility and inflation forecasting.

The Split-Share Structure Reform granted legitimate trading rights to the state-owned shares of listed state-owned enterprises (SOEs), opening up the gate to China׳s secondary privatization. The expectation of privatization quickly boosted SOE output, profits, and employment, but did not change their operating efficiency and corporate governance. The improvements to SOE performance are positively correlated to government agents’ privatization-led incentive of increasing state-owned share value. In terms of privatization methodology, the reform adopted a market mechanism that played an effective information discovery role in aligning the interests of the government and public investors.

This paper examines whether the certification effect of VCs extends to firm's potential customers, and whether, by certifying firms' values to potential customers, VCs provide value to firms. Using weekly trading data from P2P lending platforms in China, we find that the amount of loans facilitated and the number of lenders increase significantly by 25.7% and 49.3%, respectively, immediately after announcements that P2P lending platforms obtain VC investment. We find that this certification effect increases with measures of VC reputation and measures of information asymmetry between P2P lending platforms and potential customers. A difference-in-differences analysis provides consistent results, which are robust after controlling for the effects of news, advertising, and funding. We also document that VC-backed platforms are less likely to default than non-VC-backed platforms. This result provides indirect evidence that VC backing has long-term benefits beyond the news and advertising effects.

This paper examines how government intervention affects firms' investment and investment efficiency, focusing on the world's largest economic stimulus package (ESP) during the 2008 global financial crisis period. The RMB four trillion ESP aimed to restore the economy by promoting investment in priority areas. Thus it provided an exogenous shock to firms' investment environment and exacerbated the impact of government intervention on firms' investment and investment efficiency. We use propensity score matching to match government-intervened firms with their controls to reduce the endogeneity issue of government intervention. Our difference-in-differences analysis shows that government-intervened firms invested more than control firms. Further analysis shows that the source of funding for investment was mainly from bank loans rather than internal cash flows. However, the post-investment performance was poor. We find that the investment efficiency of government-intervened firms decreased and government-intervened firms overinvested after the ESP. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and placebo tests. The findings suggest that government intervention can play a negative role in government-intervened firms.

Professional audit firms increasingly engage in Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) activities. This paper examines the effect of audit firms' CSR activities on auditors’ reputation. We find that audit firms that engage in CSR experience an increase in the size of their client base compared to audit firms that do not engage in CSR. The effect is stronger for audit firms without existing reputation from a Big 4 brand name or industry specialization. We also find that clients that value CSR are more likely to hire audit firms that engage in CSR. Overall, our results suggest that CSR is an effective tool for audit firms to build their reputation in the marketplace.

We use a unique quasi-experiment–spillovers from the imposition of purchase restrictions on local housing to nearby unregulated cities–to study the effects of out-of-town housing demand on house prices and consumer spending. While these restrictions effectively stymied the surge in local house prices, they induced capital flight and sharp abnormal increases in house prices in nearby unregulated cities. The effect of the house price increases on consumer spending is positive in the aggregate, but echoing Favilukis and Van Nieuwerburgh (2021), is redistributive, that is, negative for renters and positive for homeowners.

Using data from a major online peer-to-peer lending platform, we document that, due to time pressure, investors appear to focus on interest rates and only partially account for credit ratings in their decisions. The effect is stronger for mobile-based investors than for PC-based ones. Our evidence suggests that this variation is caused by the difference in information content on the interfaces rather than differences in the devices’ physical attributes per se. Investors improve their decisions by slowing down and paying more attention to credit ratings after experiencing a loan default firsthand, but not after observing others experiencing defaults.

Using manually matched data from US-China trade dispute records and Chinese customs trade data, this study assesses the impact of the US-China trade disputes on corporate earnings management (EM) of Chinese listed companies. We find a significant reduction in accrual-based EM in firms affected by the retaliatory tariff changes due to the trade disputes. Furthermore, the impact of this shock goes beyond the directly affected firms and spreads along the supply chain as well as through block shareholding. Importantly, after excluding alternative explanations such as government subsidies, or managerial slack caused by government implicit guarantees, our results remain robust. Our mechanism analysis suggests that in response to the trade disputes, contracting parties seek transparency to alleviate information asymmetry, therefore, the increased demands for high earnings quality from creditors explain the impact of trade disputes on EM. We further find that trade disputes mainly reduce downward earnings manipulations, with no significant impact on upward EM or real EM. Additionally, the trade disputes effect is weaker in firms with political connections and effective monitoring mechanisms. Overall, this study highlights that firms strategically manage the disclosure of accounting information under uncertainties, where contracting demand is a significant factor explaining why firms enhance earnings quality in reaction to trade disputes.

Audits of internal control over financial reporting (ICFR) are typically “integrated” with the audit of the financial statements (FSs)—both audits are conducted by the same audit firm, which designs procedures to satisfy the objectives of both audits simultaneously. A common assumption is that integrating the two audits is more effective and efficient than performing them separately. However, this assumption has not been tested empirically. Using a sample of Chinese companies that employ different audit firms for their FS and ICFR audits (i.e., nonintegrated auditors), we find evidence that challenges this assumption. Specifically, we find ICFR audit quality is higher for nonintegrated audits compared to integrated audits. Moreover, total audit fees are lower for nonintegrated audits, despite higher ICFR audit fees.