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Do institutions trade ahead of false news? Evidence from an emerging market

Journal of Financial Stability 2018 36, 98-113
Many studies examine the use of false news as a method of stock price manipulation. Empirical research shows, for example, that false news generates persistent abnormal returns and affects trading volume. Studies also show that institutions often know about news before it breaks. However, the role institutions play in false news events is still unclear. To understand that role, we track institutional order flow around the release of false news in the Chinese stock market. We find that institutions seem to have early information about false news releases. Their prerelease order flows predict false news sentiments and market reactions. We further find that the early information may come from the media outlets reporting the false news. We also find evidence that institutions reverse their positions several days after the denial releases rather than when the news breaks. In turn, our evidence shows which trading patterns could bring more potential profits than reversing right on the news breaks. Our results provide unique insights into price movements and institutional reactions on false news, as well as evidence regarding regulating institutions, media platforms, and information manipulation in the stock market.

Flight to Quality in International Markets: Investors’ Demand for Financial Reporting Quality during Political Uncertainty Events

Contemporary Accounting Research 2018 35(1), 117-155
We examine whether international equity mutual fund managers shift their portfolios toward stocks with higher financial reporting quality (FRQ) during periods of high political uncertainty. Our study is motivated by two primary factors. First, prior research shows evidence of fund managers’ “flight to quality” (e.g., to less risky securities) during periods of uncertainty. Second, recent theoretical research concludes that stocks with higher FRQ are assessed as less sensitive to systematic risk (such as political uncertainty). We employ national elections as exogenous increases in systematic risk in the local markets and accordingly use an international sample of mutual funds that focus on local markets. We find that mutual fund managers shift their equity holdings to stocks with higher FRQ during election periods when political uncertainty is higher. Such a flight‐to‐quality effect is less pronounced for elections with larger expected electoral margins in the pre‐election period (i.e., when the incumbent is more likely to win the election) and for countries with higher transactions costs. In contrast, the effect is more pronounced when governments have greater involvement in the local economy. Our inferences are robust to alternative proxies for political uncertainty and FRQ and to numerous other sensitivity analyses.

Interest rate derivatives use in banking: Market pricing implications of cash flow hedges

Journal of Banking & Finance 2018 86, 113-126 open access
We examine whether investors are able to fully anticipate the pricing implications of cash flow hedges in the banking industry. We show that mark-to-market adjustments on cash flow hedges are inversely related to future cash flows and that investors underestimate the extent of this inverse relation. Our evidence supports the notion that incomplete information on value relevant parameters makes it difficult for investors to accurately predict the effects of current cash flow hedge adjustments on future cash flows. Our results are also consistent with the evidence that investors have limited attention such that information, particularly information that is difficult to discern, is not fully reflected in stock prices. Thus, the additional disclosures mandated by regulatory agencies in the banking industry are not sufficient to overcome the challenges associated with incomplete information and investors’ limited attention.