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Counterparty credit risk and derivatives pricing

Journal of Financial Economics 2019 134(3), 647-668 open access
We derive a model with qualitative implications for options pricing under counterparty credit risk and provide empirical evidence using the data from the Hong Kong derivatives market during 2005–2014. We find that the log-price difference between a derivative warrant with counterparty credit risk and an otherwise identical option without counterparty credit risk is significantly and negatively associated with the credit default swap spread on the warrant issuer. We also find that the prices of out-of-the-money put warrants are more sensitive to credit risk than those of other warrants. Our results show counterparty credit risk matters for derivative pricing.

Restrictions on Managers' Outside Employment Opportunities and Asymmetric Disclosure of Bad versus Good News

The Accounting Review 2019 94(5), 1-25
This study examines the effect of restrictions on managers' outside employment opportunities on voluntary corporate disclosure. The recognition of the Inevitable Disclosure Doctrine (IDD) by courts in the U.S. states in which the firms are headquartered places greater restrictions on their managers from joining or forming a rival company. We find that, on average, the IDD adoption increases the asymmetric withholding of bad news. We further show that the IDD adoption increases the asymmetric withholding of bad news relative to good news for firms whose managers are mainly concerned about losing their current job. However, an opposite effect is observed for firms whose managers are mainly interested in seeking promotion elsewhere. Furthermore, these effects are less pronounced for firms subject to greater monitoring of their disclosure policy. These results suggest that managers' career concerns affect corporate disclosure policy, and the effect varies with the type of career concerns.

Land Reform and Sex Selection in China

Journal of Political Economy 2019 127(2), 560-585
China’s land reform in 1978–84 unleashed rapid growth in farm output and household income. In new data on reform timing in 914 counties, we find an immediate trend break in the fraction of male children following the reform. Among second births that followed a firstborn girl, sex ratios increased from 1.1 to 1.3 boys per girl in the 4 years following reform. Larger increases are found among families with more education. The land reform estimate is robust to controlling for the county-level rollout of the One Child Policy. Overall, we estimate land reform accounted for about 1 million missing girls.

The CAPM strikes back? An equilibrium model with disasters

Journal of Financial Economics 2019 131(2), 269-298 open access
Embedding disasters into a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms induces strong nonlinearity in the pricing kernel, helping explain the empirical failure of the (consumption) CAPM. Our single-factor model reproduces the failure of the CAPM in explaining the value premium in finite samples without disasters and its relative success in samples with disasters. Due to beta measurement errors, the estimated beta-return relation is flat, consistent with the beta “anomaly,” even though the true beta-return relation is strongly positive. Finally, the consumption CAPM fails in simulations, even though a nonlinear model with the true pricing kernel holds exactly by construction.