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Complementary Information and Learning Traps*

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2020 135(1), 389-448
We develop a model of social learning from complementary information: short-lived agents sequentially choose from a large set of flexibly correlated information sources for prediction of an unknown state, and information is passed down across periods. Will the community collectively acquire the best kinds of information? Long-run outcomes fall into one of two cases: (i) efficient information aggregation, where the community eventually learns as fast as possible; (ii) “learning traps,” where the community gets stuck observing suboptimal sources and information aggregation is inefficient. Our main results identify a simple property of the underlying informational complementarities that determines which occurs. In both regimes, we characterize which sources are observed in the long run and how often.

Cross-border acquisitions and employment policies

Journal of Corporate Finance 2020 62, 101575 open access
Using novel firm-level data on employment quality in an international sample of M&A deals, this paper investigates the cost-benefit trade-off faced by acquirers when providing generous employment policies. We find that shareholders react more positively to deal announcements by acquirers providing generous employee incentives when the deal is domestic, but negatively when the deal is cross-border. These effects are primarily driven by the provision of monetary incentives and are strongest for firms in skilled industries. We argue that generous employment policies increase synergy gains and reduce labor adjustment costs in a domestic takeover. In cross-border deals, however, costs associated with managing employee policies across borders and lack of opportunities for eliminating work duplication negatively affect acquirer returns. Nevertheless, we find that country-specific acquisition experience can mitigate these negative effects. Our results cannot be explained by country-level labor regulations or by target-level employment policies.

First-mover advantage, time to finance, and cash holdings

Journal of Corporate Finance 2020 62, 101584
We examine the strategic role of cash in a two-stage competition model featuring a first-mover advantage in product markets and time delays in outside financing. Due to the joint effect of the first-mover advantage, time to finance, market profitability, participation cost, and the arrival rate of investment opportunities, large cash holdings can arise in equilibrium in both concentrated and diffuse industries, leading to a rich relation between industry concentration and cash holdings. The model also reveals novel interactions of these drivers of cash holdings that are consistent with empirical evidence. Furthermore, despite that cash is held to enable fast responses to investment opportunities, the correlation between cash holdings and realized investment is low. Our model provides an explanation for the large variation in cash holdings across industries and over time, and the strong correlation between cash holdings and R&D.

Contracting and Reporting Conservatism around a Change in Fiduciary Duties*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2020 37(4), 2472-2500
We exploit an influential 1991 Delaware court ruling to examine simultaneously two types of conservatism that play important roles in resolving creditor–owner agency conflicts: contracting conservatism and reporting conservatism. The ruling expanded managerial fiduciary duties in favor of creditors for Delaware‐incorporated firms in the vicinity of insolvency. In those firms, following the ruling, debt contracts are less likely to include conservative adjustments to accounting numbers used for covenant compliance (i.e., contracting conservatism decreases), while public financial reporting becomes more conservative (i.e., reporting conservatism increases). The decrease in contracting conservatism is concentrated in firms that exhibit a greater increase in reporting conservatism, suggesting that reporting conservatism is more cost‐effective in resolving agency conflicts. In addition, the substitution effect is more pronounced in firms facing greater business uncertainty and firms with greater board independence.

Measuring banks’ liquidity risk: An option-pricing approach

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 111, 105703
This paper proposes a new approach to evaluating banks’ liquidity needs, which is not only well-grounded theoretically, but is also easy to apply practically. Within the framework of a global game with imperfect information, we first establish a boundary condition for bank runs and show that there exists a unique Nash equilibrium for bank runs. Using the option-pricing approach, we then obtain a closed-form formula for the value of bank equity with both run risk and insolvency risk. Finally, a bank's optimal liquidity ratio is derived by maximizing the value of bank equity. Using data on Chinese listed banks, we show that the deviation of the actual liquidity ratio from the optimal liquidity ratio in a bank represents a robust proxy for its liquidity risk. An increased liquidity shortfall leads to worsening liquidity problems, and this is particularly pronounced when the liquidity shortfall is high.

Ultimate ownership, crash risk, and split share structure reform in China

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 113, 105751
This study investigates the relationship between ultimate ownership and stock price crash risk for Chinese firms and the impact on this relationship of the implementation of the split share structure reform, which rendered previously non-tradable shares freely tradable. We find that government-controlled firms, especially local ones, have a significantly higher crash risk than privately controlled firms. After the reform, crash risk of all firms decreases significantly, with a greater risk reduction for privately controlled firms than for government-controlled firms. Further evidence demonstrates that government-controlled firms with stronger political incentives tend to have higher crash risk.

Foreign Lenders’ adoption of performance pricing provisions in syndicated loans

Journal of Banking & Finance 2020 118, 105869
We examine foreign lenders’ use of performance pricing provisions (PPPs) in syndicated loan contracts. First, we find that foreign lenders, as a result of both higher information asymmetry and greater renegotiation costs than their domestic counterparts, adopt PPPs instead of tight covenants in their contracts. Second, foreign lenders have a greater preference for PPPs based on credit ratings as opposed to those based on accounting ratios than their domestic counterparts. This is consistent with informationally disadvantaged foreign lenders valuing rating-based PPPs’ signaling role, with the role of accounting-based PPPs addressing the hold-up problem being less relevant to them. In addition, the above effects mainly exist when foreign lenders serve as participants rather than lead arrangers in the syndicate. Overall, our findings establish the important role played by rating-based PPPs in addressing foreign participant lenders’ information asymmetry and thereby promoting cross-border lending.

The Causal Effect of Limits to Arbitrage on Asset Pricing Anomalies

Journal of Finance 2020 75(5), 2631-2672
We examine the causal effect of limits to arbitrage on 11 well‐known asset pricing anomalies using the pilot program of Regulation SHO, which relaxed short‐sale constraints for a quasi‐random set of pilot stocks, as a natural experiment. We find that the anomalies became weaker on portfolios constructed with pilot stocks during the pilot period. The pilot program reduced the combined anomaly long–short portfolio returns by 72 basis points per month, a difference that survives risk adjustment with standard factor models. The effect comes only from the short legs of the anomaly portfolios.