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The Value of Systemic Unimportance: The Case of MetLife

Review of Finance 2019 23(6), 1069-1078
We use an event study approach to estimate the burden of the financial regulations associated with Systemically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) designation. On March 30, 2016, the US District Court determined that MetLife’s SIFI designation was arbitrary and capricious because the Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) failed to weigh the economic cost of the financial regulation on MetLife against the benefits of increased financial stability. We find significant positive abnormal returns for MetLife and AIG on the date of the ruling. We estimate that the lifting of the SIFI designation created $1.4 billion in corporate wealth for MetLife, suggesting that MetLife would be 3.4% more profitable as a non-SIFI. These gains fall short of the $8 billion stipulated by MetLife in its complaint. We also find significant abnormal returns to SIFI institutions on the day following the US Presidential election.

U.S. Equity Investment in Foreign Markets: Portfolio Rebalancing or Return Chasing?

American Economic Review 2016
1995). Our research examines whether the expansion of U.S. investment in foreign equities and the change in the composition of the foreign portfolio over time is consistent with standard models of international portfolio choice. To answer this question, we combine data on cross-border transactions in foreign equities with data on equity returns. Our approach has three important advantages over previous tests of models of international portfolio choice. First, we bring data on asset prices as well as data on the quantities of assets purchased to bear in the empirical tests.' Second, our testing procedure is robust to time-invariant hedge factors. This is because net purchases reflect changes in portfolio weights, and constant hedge factors that might explain home bias in levels do not affect the adjustment of the port

The International Ramifications of Tax Reforms: Supply-Side Economics in a Global Economy

American Economic Review 1998
This paper studies tax reforms in a dynamic model of a global economy calibrated to current U.S. and European tax policies. World capital markets add consumption-smoothing and income-redistribution effects that alter closed-economy predictions. In the absence of taxes on foreign interest, welfare gains of eliminating U.S. income taxes are enlarged by up to 34 percent at the expense of European losses caused by transitional declines in consumption and leisure and a permanent capital outflow. In contrast, if foreign interest is taxed, the same tax reform reduces U.S. welfare 0.7 percent and increases European welfare 1.8 percent.

The International Ramifications of Tax Reforms: Supply-Side Economics in a Global Economy

American Economic Review 1998 88(1), 226-245
This paper studies tax reforms in a dynamic model of a global economy calibrated to current U.S. and European tax policies. World capital markets add consumption-smoothing and income-redistribution effects that alter closed-economy predictions. In the absence of taxes on foreign interest, welfare gains of eliminating U.S. income taxes are enlarged by up to 34 percent, at the expense of European losses caused by transitional declines in consumption and leisure, and a permanent capital outflow. In contrast, if foreign interest is taxed, the same tax reform reduces U.S. welfare 0.7 percent and increases European welfare 1.8 percent.

Tastes and technology in a two-country model of the business cycle: Explaining international

American Economic Review 1995
Trade on international financial markets allows people to insure country-specific risk and smooth consumption intertemporally. Equilibrium models of business cycles with trade on global financial markets typically yield international consumption correlations near one and excessive volatility of investment. The authors incorporate nontraded goods in the model and find that the implications for aggregate consumption, investment, and the trade balance are consistent with business-cycle properties of industrialized countries. However, the model driven by technology shocks alone yields counterfactual implications for comovements between consumption and prices at the sectoral level. Taste shocks produce price-quantity relationships more consistent with the data.

Tastes and Technology in a Two-Country Model of the Business Cycle: Explaining International Comovements

American Economic Review 1995 85(1), 168-185
Trade on international financial markets allows people to insure country-specific risk and smooth consumption intertemporally. Equilibrium models of business cycles with trade on global financial markets typically yield international consumption correlations near 1 and excessive volatility of investment. We incorporate nontraded goods in the model and find that the implications for aggregate consumption, investment, and the trade balance are consistent with business-cycle properties of industrialized countries. However, the model driven by technology shocks alone yields counterfactual implications for comovements between consumption and prices at the sectoral level. Taste shocks produce price--quantity relationships more consistent with the data.

The Value of Control in Emerging Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(4), 1741-1770
[When a developed-country multinational firm acquires majority control of a firm in an emerging market, there is an economically large and statistically significant increase in the acquiring firm's stock price. In 1986-2006, developed-market acquirers experienced positive and significant abnormal returns of 1.16%, on average, over a three-day event window. Positive acquirer returns and dollar value gains appear unique to emerging-market mergers and acquisitions and are not replicated when the same developed-market acquirers take over firms in developed markets. The size of the stock price increase is more pronounced (a) the weaker the contracting environment in the emerging market and (b) for industries with high asset intangibility.]

Quantifying the Benefits of Labour Mobility in a Currency Union

Review of Economic Studies 2026 93(2), 1038-1076
Unemployment differentials are greater between countries in the euro area than between U.S. states. In both regions, net migration responds to unemployment differentials, though the response is smaller in the euro area compared to the U.S. We use a multi-country DSGE model with cross-border migration to quantify Mundell’s hypothesis that labour mobility could substitute for independent monetary policy in a currency union. While not as effective as independent monetary policy, increased labour mobility reduces business cycle fluctuations for most countries in the euro area. However, Mundell’s conjecture does not hold uniformly. For countries that primarily face demand shocks, labour mobility stabilizes inflation and unemployment and improves welfare. If supply shocks are dominant however, labour mobility increases the cost of being in a currency union by magnifying inflation volatility.

The Value of Control in Emerging Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2010 23(4), 1741-1770
When a developed-country multinational firm acquires majority control of a firm in an emerging market, there is an economically large and statistically significant increase in the acquiring firm's stock price. In 1986–2006, developed-market acquirers experienced positive and significant abnormal returns of 1.16%, on average, over a three-day event window. Positive acquirer returns and dollar value gains appear unique to emerging-market mergers and acquisitions and are not replicated when the same developed-market acquirers take over firms in developed markets. The size of the stock price increase is more pronounced (a) the weaker the contracting environment in the emerging market and (b) for industries with high asset intangibility.