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Market Efficiency and the Favorite‐Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market

Journal of Finance 1994 49(1), 269-279
This paper examines the efficiency of the legal gambling market for major league baseball. Weak‐form tests of market efficiency within and across odds lines are performed. Surprisingly, the consistently observed favorite‐longshot bias in racetrack betting is shown to exist in reverse for baseball bettors. However, these and other deviations from efficiency are shown to be insufficient to allow for profitable betting strategies when commissions are considered.

Market Efficiency and the Favorite-Longshot Bias: The Baseball Betting Market.

Journal of Finance 1994 49(1), 269-79
This paper examines the efficiency of the legal gambling market for major league baseball. Weak-form tests of market efficiency within and across odds lines are performed. Surprisingly, the consistently observed favorite-longshot bias in racetrack betting is shown to exist in reverse for baseball bettors. However, these and other deviations from efficiency are shown to be insufficient to allow for profitable betting strategies when commissions are considered.

The Effects of Risk Aversion on Wagering: Point Spread versus Odds

Journal of Political Economy 1991 99(3), 638-653
Currently, casinos and bookies use the point-spread method for betting on football games. Since an odds system is used in various other sports, what factors explain the current structure of the betting market? As the bookie's profits are a percentage of the total money wagered, the existence of point-spread betting indicates that the total money wagered under this betting scheme is greater than that generated by odds betting. This paper suggets that the current market structure is a consequence of risk-averse attitudes of bettors.

The Effects of Risk Aversion on Wagering: Point Spread versus Odds

Journal of Political Economy 1991 99(3), 638-653
Currently, casinos and bookies use the point-spread method for betting on football games. Since an odds system is used in various other sports, what factors explain the current structure of the betting market? As the bookie's profits are a percentage of the total money wagered, the existence of point-spread betting indicates that the total money wagered under this betting scheme is greater than that generated by odds betting. This paper suggets that the current market structure is a consequence of risk-averse attitudes of bettors.