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Death is a law: Death of former colleagues and management forecasts
Local political corruption and Firm's non-GAAP reporting
We examine whether local political corruption affects managers' discretionary disclosures of non-GAAP earnings. Using United States Department of Justice data on the number of corruption convictions of government officials, we find that firms headquartered in more corrupt districts (1) are less likely to report non-GAAP earnings, (2) have less aggressive non-GAAP earnings disclosures, and (3) experience a significant decline in the exclusion magnitudes of non-GAAP earnings. These results are more pronounced for firms with concentrated operations in their headquarter states and are robust to controlling for demographic characteristics, employing alternative corruption and non-GAAP measures, using the instrumental variable approach, and conducting a difference-in-difference analysis based on firms' relocation. Finally, we show that as local political corruption increases, managers exclude lower levels of both recurring and non-recurring items when calculating non-GAAP earnings. Overall, the results suggest that managing non-GAAP reporting is one channel through which firms could deter rent-seeking by corrupt officials.
Flu Fallout: Information Production Constraints and Corporate Disclosure
Using influenza epidemic data, we examine how constraints on corporate information production affect disclosure policies. We find that firms in areas with higher flu activity are less likely to issue short‐run earnings forecasts and more likely to issue long‐run earnings forecasts. These results are more pronounced when the information production process is more complex, when managers face a greater reputational loss for issuing low‐quality short‐run forecasts, and when firms’ costs of switching the forecast horizon are lower. Further analysis implies that the effect of flu activity on these forecast issuance decisions is not driven by firm performance or information uncertainty. Our results suggest that managers do not simply avoid issuing forecasts in response to information production constraints. Instead, they shift the forecast horizon from short‐run to long‐run, appearing to balance the costs of issuing low‐quality forecasts with those of not issuing forecasts at all.
Analyst Coverage and Expected Crash Risk: Evidence from Exogenous Changes in Analyst Coverage
Using brokerage mergers and closures as two sources of exogenous shock to analyst coverage, this study explores the causal effect of analyst coverage on ex ante expected crash risk as captured by the options implied volatility smirk. We find a significant increase in a firm's ex ante expected crash risk subsequent to an exogenous drop in analyst coverage; this positive effect is stronger for firms initially receiving less coverage. Further, we find analysts' ability matters to investors' assessment of future crash risk. Specifically, we find the impact is more pronounced for the coverage terminations of analysts with more firm-specific or general experience, with greater access to resources, or whose prior forecasts are more accurate than those of their peers. Overall, our results suggest that investors in the options market do recognize analysts as important information intermediaries and monitors and, thus, that analyst coverage influences the underlying stock's expected crash risk.
The impact of local corruption on firms' narrative R&D disclosures
This study examines the impact of local corruption on firms' narrative research and development (R&D) disclosures in the United States. We find that firms in more corrupt areas include fewer R&D sentences in their 10-K filings, and these sentences contain less numerical and forward-looking information. Our results hold across various measures of local corruption and R&D disclosures and remain robust after controlling for firms' R&D activities, implementing fixed effects, using difference-in-differences tests, and applying instrumental variable analysis. Additionally, the effects are more pronounced for firms with concentrated operations in their headquarters states and for firms whose R&D disclosures closely relate to future earnings. However, they are less pronounced for firms with CEOs politically aligned with the state's incumbent party and when the benefit of resolving market dispersion from firms' R&D disclosure is high. Overall, our findings indicate that local corruption adversely affects firms' narrative R&D disclosures.