We propose a momentum strategy that operates within commodity futures curves. The diversified curve momentum strategy generates a significantly positive average excess return and a (annualized) Sharpe ratio of 1.28. The profitability of the strategy has increased markedly in the more recent years. These excess returns are difficult to reconcile with risk based explanations, as evidenced by the significantly positive alpha after controlling for exposure to several well-known risk factors. The average excess return on the diversified curve momentum strategy remains significantly positive even after accounting for transaction costs.

A stock’s exposure to systematic risk factors is surrounded by substantial uncertainty. This beta uncertainty is both economically and statistically significantly priced in the cross-section of stock returns. Stocks with high beta uncertainty substantially underperform those with low beta uncertainty: a two-standard-deviation increase in the measure decreases average annual returns by 9.7%. These results cannot be explained by previously discovered determinants of cross-sectional stock returns. Aggregate beta uncertainty negatively predicts market excess returns in the short and medium term. We find supporting evidence for a mispricing explanation of the beta uncertainty premium.