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Dynamic Thin Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(10), 2946-2992
Extensive empirical research has shown that in many markets institutional investors have a significant impact on prices and mitigate its adverse effects through their trading strategies. This paper develops a dynamic model of such thin markets, in which the market structure is one of bilateral oligopoly. The paper demonstrates that market thinness qualitatively changes equilibrium properties of prices and dynamic trading strategies, compared to the existing theories of asset pricing. The predictions match a number of empirical facts that are hard to reconcile with the competitive or Cournot-based models. The paper further establishes that the nonstrategic general-equilibrium approach and the strategic approach to trade via Nash in demands are dual representations of a model with endogenous price impact. The proposed approach yields an analytical framework that can be used to study dynamic markets with bilateral market power.

Dynamic Thin Markets

Review of Financial Studies 2015 28(10), 2946-2992
Large institutional investors dominate many financial markets. This paper develops a consumption-based model of markets in which all institutional traders recognize their impact on prices. Bilateral (buyer and seller) market power changes efficiency and arbitrage properties of equilibrium. Predictions match temporary and permanent price effects of supply shocks, order breakup, limits to arbitrage, nonneutrality of trading frequency, and real effects of shocks and announcements in periods other than event dates. Maximizing welfare and stabilizing liquidity through disclosure of information about fundamentals presents a trade-off. Equilibrium representation as "trading against price impact" provides a link with the industry's practice.

Price Inference in Small Markets

Econometrica 2012 80(2), 687-711
This paper investigates the effects of market size on the ability of price to aggregate traders' private information. To account for heterogeneity in correlation of trader values, a Gaussian model of double auction is introduced that departs from the standard information structure based on a common (fundamental) shock. The paper shows that markets are informationally efficient only if correlations of values coincide across all bidder pairs. As a result, with heterogeneously interdependent values, price informativeness may not increase monotonically with market size. As a necessary and sufficient condition for the monotonicity, price informativeness increases with the number of traders if the implied reduction in (the absolute value of) an average correlation statistic of an information structure is sufficiently small.

Competition in Financial Innovation

Econometrica 2012 80(5), 1895-1936
This paper examines the incentives offered by frictionless markets to innovate asset-backed securities by owners who maximize the assets' values. Assuming identical preferences across investors with heterogeneous risk-sharing needs, we characterize economies in which competition provides insufficient incentives to innovate so that, in equilibrium, financial markets are incomplete in all (pure strategy) equilibria, even when innovation is essentially costless. Thus, value maximization does not generally result in complete markets.