This paper investigates whether consumer durables are important for the generation and propagation of business cycles. The author constructs a two-sector model that succeeds in generating business cycles that mimic empirical patterns of cross-sector volatility and comovement. She finds that half the relatively higher volatility associated with the durable-goods sector is due to higher volatility of shocks hitting this sector, with the other half due to endogenous responses, notably the investment accelerator. Nevertheless, this model does not have stronger internal propagation than the one-sector model. Further, incorporating durable consumer goods has little effect on the behavior of other macroeconomic variables.

This paper develops a two-sector neoclassical model of international trade with endogenous capital accumulation and intertemporal optimization. In contrast to the traditional "2 × 2 × 2" model, there is a Ricardian implication that countries specialize according to comparative advantage. Consequently, the theory predicts that government expenditure policies are unlikely to affect the established pattern of specialization and trade, but that changes in tax policies can result in a dramatic reorganization of world production. Further, the dynamic 2 × 2 × 2 model can explain many of the salient features of international trade that are problematic for the standard Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model.

This paper develops a two-sector neoclassical model of international trade with endogenous capital accumulation and intertemporal optimization. In contrast to the traditional "2 × 2 × 2" model, there is a Ricardian implication that countries specialize according to comparative advantage. Consequently, the theory predicts that government expenditure policies are unlikely to affect the established pattern of specialization and trade, but that changes in tax policies can result in a dramatic reorganization of world production. Further, the dynamic 2 × 2 × 2 model can explain many of the salient features of international trade that are problematic for the standard Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model.

Band-pass filters are useful in a wide range of economic contexts. This paper develops a set of approximate band-pass filters and illustrates their application to measuring the business-cycle component of macroeconomic activity. Detailed comparisons are made with several alternative filters commonly used for extracting business-cycle components.

Trade Structure, Industrial Structure, and International Business Cycles by Marianne Baxter and Michael A. Kouparitsas. Published in volume 93, issue 2, pages 51-56 of American Economic Review, May 2003

Empirical research on the permanent-income hypothesis (PIH) has found that consumption growth is excessively sensitive to predictable changes in income. This finding is interpreted as strong evidence against the PIH. We propose an explanation for apparent excess sensitivity that is based on a quantitative equilibrium model of household production in which permanent-income consumers respond to shifts in sectoral wages and prices by substituting work effort and consumption across home and market sectors. Although the PIH is true, this mechanism generates apparent excess sensitivity because market consumption responds to predictable income growth.

Despite the growing integration of international financial markets, investors do not diversify internationally to any significant extent. We show that this "international diversification puzzle" is deepened once we consider the implications of nontraded human capital for portfolio composition. While growth rates of labor and capital income are not highly correlated within countries, we find that the returns to human capital and physical capital are very highly correlated within four OECD countries. Hedging human capital risk therefore involves a substantial short position in domestic marketable assets. A diversified world portfolio will involve a negative position in domestic marketable assets.

This paper studies four classic fiscal-policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model. Our main findings are as follows: (i) permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short-run and long-run output multipliers that exceed 1; (ii) permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes; (iii) the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases; and (iv) public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment. These findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy.

National saving and investment rates are highly positively correlated in virtually all countries. This is puzzling, as it apparently implies a low degree of international capital mobility. This paper shows that the observed positive correlation between national saving and investment rates arises naturally within a quantitatively restricted equilibrium model with perfect mobility of financial and physical capital. The model is consistent with the fact that saving--investment correlations are larger for larger countries but are still substantial for small countries. Further, the model is consistent with the finding that current-account deficits tend to be associated with investment booms.

This paper studies four classic fiscal-policy experiments within a quantitatively restricted neoclassical model. The authors' main findings are as follows: (1) permanent changes in government purchases can lead to short-run and long-run output multipliers that exceed one; (2) permanent changes in government purchases induce larger effects than temporary changes; (3) the financing decision is quantitatively more important than the resource cost of changes in government purchases; and (4) public investment has dramatic effects on private output and investment. These findings stem from important dynamic interactions of capital and labor absent in earlier equilibrium analyses of fiscal policy.