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Financial Consequences of the Belt and Road Initiative

Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 2026 open access
China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to create economic corridors encompassing two-thirds of the world’s population and 40% of global GDP. Using the inauguration of a railway tunnel between Europe and Asia as a quasi-natural experiment, I demonstrate that countries gaining access to BRI’s freight routes issue significant amounts of high-yield debt. This debt is largely absorbed domestically, reallocating capital away from firms without translating into infrastructure investment. State-owned enterprises appear insulated from tightening financial conditions. I document mechanisms involving political alignment with China, exposure to trade policy uncertainty, and topographic fit based on historical Orient Express routes.