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(How) do credit market conditions affect firms' post-hedging outcomes? Evidence from bank lending standards and firms' currency exposure

Journal of Corporate Finance 2018 50, 203-222
Tighter bank lending standards could increase firms' post-hedging currency exposure by reducing firms' ability to fund hedging (funding channel) and/or by constraining counterparties' capacity to facilitate hedging (capacity channel). We find that tighter lending standards materially increase firms' exposure. In addition, we find no support for a funding-channel effect as firms' internal liquidity does not mitigate the impact of lending standards on exposure, indicating that the impact is through the capacity channel. Finally, we find a negative association between lending standards and aggregate transactions in currency derivatives, bolstering support for a capacity-channel effect. Our results have implications for firms' hedging policy and the bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission.

How does currency risk impact firms? New evidence from bank loan contracts

Journal of Corporate Finance 2024 84, 102542
We use unique features of the private credit market to examine if and how currency risk impacts firms' financing and whether currency risk is a priced systematic risk at the firm level. We find that currency exposure has a large impact on loan spreads. Decomposing loan spreads, we find that exposure increases the expected default loss premium and that internationalization, growth opportunities, and relationship intensify exposure's impact. Further, exposure exacerbates firms' financing risk by increasing the need for collateral, reducing loan maturity, inducing monitoring and covenant intensity, and influencing syndicate structure. However, exposure does not affect the expected return premium in loan spreads; hence, currency risk does not appear priced in the classical sense and, therefore, should not affect the “true” cost of debt. Our findings imply that while managers should be concerned about exposure's impact on their access to, and terms of, bank financing, they should not adjust hurdle rates on account of exposure when assessing investment projects.

Does bank loan supply affect the supply of equity capital? Evidence from new share issuance and withdrawal

Journal of Financial Intermediation 2017 29, 32-45
We examine the hypothesis that fluctuations in the aggregate supply of bank loans influence the supply of new equity capital. Using residual lending standards as a clean measure of aggregate loan supply and a VAR framework to aid identification, we find that a one-standard-deviation shock to lending standards results in 15% fewer IPOs. Shocks elicit strong responses from IPO-firms that are highly dependent on external capital and increase the number of withdrawals, strengthening the interpretation that the above is driven by changes in the supply of equity. Our results suggest that credit conditions are important to a well-functioning IPO market.

Does deposit insurance retard the development of non-bank financial markets?

Journal of Banking & Finance 2016 66, 102-125
Whether, and how, the introduction of deposit insurance affects non-bank financial market development depends on whether banks and non-bank financial markets are substitutes or complements and theory has conflicting views. Using data on 134 countries over a 28-year period and several identification strategies we find that the introduction of deposit insurance retards the equity market, the non-bank depositaries sector, and the banking sector when law and order is weak. While strong law and order mitigates this effect, it does not lead to a positive outcome for all markets. For non-bank financial markets, the effect is greater in the long run so that while deposit insurance increases banking sector development in the long run, it retards non-bank financial markets regardless of the level of law and order. Finally, several design features exacerbate the negative outcomes. Our results have important policy implications for implementing or altering deposit insurance schemes.

Rivals’ competitive activities, capital constraints, and firm growth

Journal of Banking & Finance 2018 97, 87-108
We examine the impact of rivals’ competitive activities on firms’ quantity-of-capital constraints in 60 countries. Prior work shows that competition increases the costs of debt and equity, which reduce the economic profit from investment. Capital constraints, however, may prevent firms from exploiting all positive NPV projects. Using unique survey data and several econometric techniques, we address endogeneity problems that affect both capital constraints and rivals’ competitive activities. We find that rivals’ competitive activities are positively associated with firms’ capital constraints and are more strongly correlated with capital constraints than banking sector competition. We also show that quantity-of-capital constraints are negatively related to firm growth, incremental to the cost of capital.