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Global weather-based trading strategies

Journal of Banking & Finance 2022 143, 106558
We estimate the profitability of global index-level trading strategies formed on daily weather conditions across 49 countries. We use pre-market weather conditions (sunshine, wind, rain, snow, and temperature) and the statistical relationship between weather and returns to predict index returns each day. In the out-of-sample test for our 1993–2012 sample, a global weather-based hedge strategy produces a mean annual return of 15.2% compared to a mean world index return of 6.2%, corresponding to a Sharpe ratio of 0.462 relative to 0.243 for the world index. Our findings confirm that multiple weather conditions exert economically important impacts on stock returns around the globe.