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Institutional Ownership and the Extent to which Stock Prices Reflect Future Earnings

Contemporary Accounting Research 2002
Articles in the financial press suggest that institutional investors are overly focused on current profitability. This suggests that as institutional ownership increases, stock prices will reflect less current period information that is predictive of future period earnings. On the other hand, institutional investors are often characterized in academic research as sophisticated investors. Sophisticated investors should be better able to utilize current period information to predict future earnings compared to other owners. According to this characterization, as institutional ownership increases, stock prices should reflect more current period information that is predictive of future period earnings. Consistent with this latter view, we find that the extent to which stock prices lead earnings is positively related to the percentage of institutional ownership. This result holds after controlling for various factors that affect the relation between price and earnings. It also holds when we control for endogenous portfolio choices of institutions (e.g., institutional investors may be attracted to firms in richer information environments where stock prices tend to lead earnings). Further, a regression of stock returns on order backlog, conditional on the percentage of institutional ownership, indicates that institutional owners place more weight on order backlog compared to other owners. This is consistent with institutional owners using non-earnings information to predict future earnings. It also explains, in part, why prices lead earnings to a greater extent when there is a higher concentration of institutional owners.

Institutional Ownership and the Extent to which Stock Prices Reflect Future Earnings*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2002 19(1), 117-145
Articles in the financial press suggest that institutional investors are overly focused on current profitability, which suggests that as institutional ownership increases, stock prices reflect less current period information that is predictive of future period earnings. On the other hand, institutional investors are often characterized in academic research as sophisticated investors and sophisticated investors should be better able to use current‐period information to predict future earnings compared with other owners. According to this characterization, as institutional ownership increases, stock prices should reflect more current‐period information that is predictive of future period earnings. Consistent with this latter view, we find that the extent to which stock prices lead earnings is positively related to the percentage of institutional ownership. This result holds after controlling for various factors that affect the relation between price and earnings. It also holds when we control for endogenous portfolio choices of institutions (e.g., institutional investors may be attracted to firms in richer information environments where stock prices tend to lead earnings). Further, a regression of stock returns on order backlog, conditional on the percentage of institutional ownership, indicates that institutional owners place more weight on order backlog compared with other owners. This result is consistent with institutional owners using non‐earnings information to predict future earnings. It also explains, in part, why prices lead earnings to a greater extent when there is a higher concentration of institutional owners.

Managerial Actions, Stock Returns, and Earnings: The Case of Business‐to‐Business Internet Firms

Journal of Accounting Research 2002 40(2), 529-556
In this study we investigate the valuation implications of managerial actions undertaken by 57 Internet firms engaged in Business‐to‐Business (B2B) e‐commerce. We classify 3,007 managerial actions undertaken by our sample firms between the firm’s IPO date and September 30, 2000 into nine action categories: (1) acquisition of major customers, (2) introduction of new products and services, (3) promotional and marketing actions, (4) actions taken to address the concerns of stakeholders such as employees and the community at large, (5) announcements of technology, marketing, and distribution alliances, (6) completion of acquisitions, (7) expansion into international markets, (8) management team building actions, and (9) organizational changes. In the short window tests, we find a significant increase in stock price volatility over a three‐day event window surrounding the announcement of almost all actions suggesting that announcement of managerial actions provides value‐relevant information to the stock market. In the long window tests, we use factor analysis to group the counts of managerial actions taken by each firm over its post‐IPO life into two broad managerial initiatives—market penetration and organization building. These two initiatives explain a substantial portion of the cross‐sectional variation in the firms’ post‐IPO life stock market returns beyond that explained by both reported earnings and analysts’ forecasts of future earnings and revenues. Thus, investors appear to supplement relatively meager accounting information with data about the cross‐sectional intensity of managerial actions in setting stock prices of B2B Internet firms.

The Effect of Mandated Market Risk Disclosures on Trading Volume Sensitivity to Interest Rate, Exchange Rate, and Commodity Price Movements

The Accounting Review 2002 77(2), 343-377
We hypothesize that firms' 10-K market risk disclosures, recently mandated by SEC Financial Reporting Release No. 48 (FRR No. 48), reduce investors' uncertainty and diversity of opinion about the implications, for firm value, of changes in interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, and commodity prices. We argue that this reduced uncertainty and diversity of opinion should dampen trading volume sensitivity to changes in these underlying market rates or prices. Consistent with this hypothesis, we find that after firms disclose FRR No. 48-mandated information about their exposures to interest rates, foreign currency exchange rates, and energy prices, trading volume sensitivity to changes in these underlying market rates and prices declines, even after controlling for other factors associated with trading volume. The observed declines in trading volume sensitivity are consistent with FRR No. 48 market risk disclosures providing useful information to investors.