Factor Mobility and Regional Growth
THE effects of factor mobility on the regional differences in factor returns and on regional growth have been central to the theoretical analysis of regional' growth. Those who believe that economic growth of a region is dependent on the growth of inputs (either because aggregate demand for the region's output is not a constraint as in the neoclassical growth models or because a demand type model of the post-Keynesian variety is not sufficient to explain the growth of an open region) cannot ignore the role played by factor mobility. The interest in the effects of factor mobility on regional growth through its effect on the rates of growth of inputs is more than academic. Appropriate regional growth policies cannot be designed without prior determination of the role played by input growth and the variables which influence those growth rates. Yet,' empirical studies of these issues are scarce. So far only three studies have investigated the relationships between input growth and regional growth, and factor returns and input growth. The seminal work has been that of Borts and Stein (1964), who studied the response of factor mobility to factor price differentials and the relationship between output and the aggregate capital-labor ratio. However, empirical results are inconsistent with standard neoclassical growth theorems... (Smith, 1974, p. 166). These inconsistencies are attributed by Smith (1974, 1975) to the use of data on one sector (nonagriculture) without considering the possibility of intersectoral factor movements. Smith has argued that one can either consider total regional output and ignore intersectoral factor movement (1974), or consider sectoral output and allow for intersectoral factor mobility (1975). Although the empirical results reported by Smith (1974) for his two sector model are interesting,they are of limited value for our purpose since the parameters estimated and tested are those of the reduced form and no indication of the explanatory power of those equations are reported. From those results one cannot assess the contribution of factor mobility to regional growth nor the value of the model in explaining the variations in growth rates among states. The coefficients of determination are reported in the second study (1975) for the reduced form equations; however, the same limitations on the value of the results are encountered. Furthermore, the explanatory power of the reduced form equations are distressingly low. In this article we report on the results of estimating a simple neoclassical model of regional growth. The estimated model is validated by comparing its simulations with observed values of the variables and their rates of growth between 1963 and 1973. We then use the model to derive the long run implications with respect to growth rates of output, output per worker and the level of output per worker. These are obtained from the dynamic simulation of the model over a period of time. The results of these simulations reveal a strong tendency for the rates of growth output and output per worker to converge. No such convergence is obtained for the level of output per worker.