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Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors

Journal of Financial Economics 2012 104(3), 535-559 open access
We propose several econometric measures of connectedness based on principal-components analysis and Granger-causality networks, and apply them to the monthly returns of hedge funds, banks, broker/dealers, and insurance companies. We find that all four sectors have become highly interrelated over the past decade, likely increasing the level of systemic risk in the finance and insurance industries through a complex and time-varying network of relationships. These measures can also identify and quantify financial crisis periods, and seem to contain predictive power in out-of-sample tests. Our results show an asymmetry in the degree of connectedness among the four sectors, with banks playing a much more important role in transmitting shocks than other financial institutions.

Complexity and the default risk of mortgage-backed securities

Journal of Banking & Finance 2023 155, 106993 open access
We study the impact that lower complexity in bank securitisations has on mortgage quality and the securitisation structure. We find that mortgages issued after the announcement of new European regulation that aims to reduce deal complexity are characterised by up to 0.38% lower annual delinquency rates than in the pre-regulation period. Similarly, we show that mortgage securitisations that meet the new ‘simplicity, transparency and standardisation’ (STS) criteria have 0.77% lower annual delinquency rates and are more resilient to adverse macro-economic shocks. We find that the increased quality of the underlying loans outweighs the potential negative effects of thinner subordinated tranches in securitisations that comply with the new regulation. Overall, our findings suggest that the new European securitisation regulation has contributed to improving credit quality in the securitisation market in Europe.