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Do Expiring Budgets Lead to Wasteful Year-End Spending? Evidence from Federal Procurement

American Economic Review 2017 107(11), 3510-3549
Many organizations have budgets that expire at the end of the fiscal year and may face incentives to rush to spend resources on low-quality projects at year's end. We test these predictions using data on procurement spending by the US federal government. Spending in the last week of the year is 4.9 times higher than the rest-of-the-year weekly average, and year-end information technology projects have substantially lower quality ratings. We also analyze the gains from allowing agencies to roll over unused funds into the next fiscal year. (JEL H57, H61)

Imperfect Competition in Selection Markets

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2017 99(4), 637-651
Policies to correct market power and selection can be misguided when these forces coexist. We build a model of symmetric imperfect competition in selection markets that parameterizes the degree of market power and selection. We use graphical price-theoretic reasoning to characterize the interaction between these forces. Using a calibrated model of health insurance, we show that the risk adjustment commonly used to offset adverse selection can reduce coverage and social surplus. Conversely, in a calibrated model of subprime auto lending, realistic levels of competition can generate an oversupply of credit, implying that greater market power is desirable.