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Testing Marx: Capital Accumulation, Income Inequality, and Socialism in Late Nineteenth-Century Germany

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2025 107(4), 935-950 open access
Abstract We study the dynamics of capital accumulation, income inequality, capital concentration, and voting up to 1914. Based on new panel data for Prussian regions, we reevaluate the famous revisionism debate between orthodox Marxists and their critics. We show that changes in capital accumulation led to a rise in the capital share and income inequality, as predicted by orthodox Marxists. But against their predictions, this neither led to further capital concentration nor more votes for the socialists. Instead, trade unions and strike activity limited income inequality and fostered political support for socialism, as argued by the revisionists.

History and Industry Location: Evidence from German Airports

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2011 93(3), 814-831 open access
A central prediction of a large class of theoretical models is that industry location is not uniquely determined by fundamentals. Despite the theoretical prominence of this idea, there is little systematic evidence in support of its empirical relevance. This paper exploits the division of Germany after World War II and the reunification of East and West Germany as an exogenous shock to industry location. Focusing on a particular economic activity, an air hub, we develop a body of evidence that the relocation of Germany's air hub from Berlin to Frankfurt in response to division is a shift between multiple steady states.

The Economics of Density: Evidence From the Berlin Wall

Econometrica 2015 83(6), 2127-2189 open access
This paper develops a quantitative model of internal city structure that features agglomeration and dispersion forces and an arbitrary number of heterogeneous city blocks. The model remains tractable and amenable to empirical analysis because of stochastic shocks to commuting decisions, which yield a gravity equation for commuting flows. To structurally estimate agglomeration and dispersion forces, we use data on thousands of city blocks in Berlin for 1936, 1986 and 2006 and exogenous variation from the city’s division and reunification. We estimate substantial and highly localized production and residential externalities. We show that the model with the estimated agglomeration parameters can account both qualitatively and quantitatively for the observed changes in city structure. We show how our quantitative framework can be used to undertake counterfactuals for changes in the organization of economic activity within cities in response for example to changes in the transport network.