This paper uses a unique and rich administrative data set to analyze the impact of the introduction of a new grading policy on graduations rates at Benedict College, a Historically Black College in Columbia, South Carolina. According to the new grading policy, grades for underclassmen are determined in part by performance on tests and in part by measures of “effort” such as attendance and class participation. This paper finds that while graduates graduate at a faster rate under the policy, there is no significant difference between graduation rates before and after the policy was implemented.

Rather than estimating the returns to obtaining a college degree, this paper treats the college education decision as an uncertain investment involving varying likelihoods of successful graduation. We predict earnings conditional on both graduating and not graduating from both selective and non-selective institutions, and incorporate estimated individual-specific graduation rates in calculating the ex ante expected returns from college attendance for individuals across the ability distribution. Our results suggest that, especially for lower ability students, ex ante returns may differ substantially from typical estimates of the returns to a college degree, and typical estimates of the selectivity premium may be underestimated.