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Dynamic Female Labor Supply

Econometrica 2011 79(6), 1675-1726
The increase in female employment and participation rates is one of the most dramatic changes to have taken place in the economy during the last century. However, while the employment rate of married women more than doubled during the last 50 years, that of unmarried women remained almost constant. To empirically analyze these trends, we estimate a female dynamic labor supply model using an extended version of Eckstein and Wolpin (1989) to compare the various explanations in the literature for the observed trends. This dynamic model provides a much better fit to the life-cycle employment pattern than a static version of the model and a standard static reduced form model (Heckman (1979)). The main finding using the dynamic model is that the rise in education levels accounts for about 33 percent of the increase in female employment, and the rise in wages and narrowing of the gender wage gap account for another 20 percent, while about 40 percent remains unexplained by observed household characteristics. We show that this unexplained portion can be empirically attributed to cohort-specific changes in preferences or the costs of child-rearing and household maintenance. Finally, the decline in fertility and the increase in divorce rates account for only a small share of the increase in female employment rates.

Career and Family Decisions: Cohorts Born 1935-1975

Econometrica 2019 87(1), 217-253 open access
Comparing the 1935 and 1975 U.S. birth cohorts, wages of married women grew twice as fast as for married men, and the wage gap between married and single women turned from negative to positive. The employment rate of married women also increased sharply, while that of other groups remained quite stable. To better understand these diverse patterns, we develop a life-cycle model incorporating individual and household decisions about education, employment, marriage/divorce, and fertility. The model provides an excellent fit to wage and employment patterns, along with changes in education, marriage/divorce rates, and fertility. We assume fixed preferences, but allow for four exogenously changing factors: (i) mother's education, health, and taxes/transfers; (ii) marriage market opportunities and divorce costs; (iii) the wage structure and job offers; (iv) contraception technology. We quantify how each factor contributed to changes across cohorts. We find that factor (iii) was the most important force driving the increase in relative wages of married women, but that all four factors are important for explaining the many socio-economic changes that occurred in the past 50 years. Finally, we use the model to simulate a shift from joint to individual taxation. In a revenue-neutral simulation, we predict this would increase employment of married women by 9% and the marriage rate by 8.1%.

Residential Location, Work Location, and Labor Market Outcomes of Immigrants in Israel

Econometrica 2014 82(3), 995-1054
We develop and estimate a comprehensive dynamic programming (DP) model for the joint decisions of residential location, employment location, occupational choices, and labor market outcomes. We use data on immigrants from the former Soviet Union (FSU). We provide an extensive empirical evaluation of policies that have been designed to affect the residential and employment location decisions of the migrant population. The results shed new, and important, light on several issues regarding this group of immigrants. We find large regional differences in wages for the white-collar workers, but only little differences for the blue-collar workers. A careful examination of a number of policy measures indicate that a direct subsidy, in the form of a lump-sum transfer, is most effective in achieving the government stated goal of inducing people to reside in the northern region of the Galilee and southern region of the Negev. Other policies, such as rental and wage subsidies, can also be quite effective, but these are more difficult to administer.