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Credible School Value-Added with Undersubscribed School Lotteries

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2024 106(1), 1-19 open access
Abstract We introduce two empirical strategies harnessing the randomness in school assignment mechanisms to measure school value-added. The first estimator controls for the probability of school assignment, treating take-up as ignorable. We test this assumption using randomness in assignments. The second approach uses assignments as instrumental variables (IVs) for low-dimensional models of value-added and forms empirical Bayes posteriors from these IV estimates. Both strategies solve the underidentification challenge arising from school undersubscription. Models controlling for assignment risk and lagged achievement in Denver and New York City yield reliable value-added estimates. Estimates from models with lower-quality achievement controls are improved by IV.

Redesigning the US Army’s Branching Process: A Case Study in Minimalist Market Design

American Economic Review 2024 114(4), 1070-1106
We present a proof-of-concept for minimalist market design (Sönmez 2023) as an effective methodology to enhance an institution based on stakeholders’ desiderata with minimal interference. Four objectives— respecting merit, increasing retention, aligning talent, and enhancing trust—guided reforms to the US Army’s centralized branching process of cadets to military specialties since 2006. USMA’s mechanism for the class of 2020 exacerbated challenges in implementing these objectives. Formulating the Army’s desiderata as rigorous axioms, we analyze their implications. Under our minimalist approach to institution redesign, the Army’s objectives uniquely identify a branching mechanism. Our design is now adopted at USMA and ROTC. (JEL D47, H56, J45)