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Separating Winners from Losers among LowBook-to-Market Stocks using Financial Statement Analysis

Review of Accounting Studies 2005 10(2-3), 133-170 open access
This paper combines traditional fundamentals, such as earnings and cash flows, with measures tailored for growth firms, such as earnings stability, growth stability and intensity of R&D, capital expenditure and advertising, to create an index – GSCORE. A long–short strategy based on GSCORE earns significant excess returns, though most of the returns come from the short side. Results are robust in partitions of size, analyst following and liquidity and persist after controlling for momentum, book-to-market, accruals and size. High GSCORE firms have greater market reaction and analyst forecast surprises with respect to future earnings announcements. Further, the results are inconsistent with a risk-based explanation as returns are positive in most years, and firms with lower risk earn higher returns. Finally, a contextual approach towards fundamental analysis works best, with traditional analysis appropriate for high BM stocks and growth oriented fundamental analysis appropriate for low BM stocks.

How Has Regulation FD Affected the Operations of Financial Analysts?*

Contemporary Accounting Research 2006 23(2), 491-525
In this paper, we analyze how financial analysts generate information, make decisions about firm coverage, and try to maintain their forecasting accuracy after the passage of Regulation Fair Disclosure (“Reg FD”). Using the model developed by Barron, Kim, Lim, and Stevens 1998, we find that analysts are investing more effort in idiosyncratic information discovery. In order to do this, individual analysts appear to be reducing coverage for well‐followed firms while increasing coverage of firms that were less followed prior to Reg FD. Analysts who had preferential links with firms that they covered, such as analysts from large brokerage houses, tend to have greater forecast accuracy in the pre‐FD period. However, these analysts are unable to sustain their forecasting superiority in the post‐FD period, which suggests that there has been a leveling of the information playing field among analysts. Overall, our results reflect a trend toward greater reliance on idiosyncratic information discovery on part of the financial analysts.

Does Income Statement Placement Matter to Investors? The Case of Gains/Losses from Early Debt Extinguishment

The Accounting Review 2014 89(6), 2021-2055 open access
Does the placement of a line item in the income statement matter to investors? The passage of Statement of Financial Accounting Standards (SFAS) No. 145 (Financial Accounting Standards Board [FASB] 2002) affords a quasi-experimental setting to answer this question, because pre-SFAS No. 145, gains/losses from early debt extinguishments were reported below the line, while post-SFAS No. 145, they were reported above the line. After controlling for other identified changes that occur during our sample period, we find that, pre-SFAS No. 145, the market does not respond to these gains/losses, whereas post-SFAS No. 145, it does. This suggests that the market response to gains/losses is associated with their placement in the income statement. Our findings contribute to the literature on the importance of income statement presentation by demonstrating that a line-item position in the income statement has important valuation implications.

Can Twitter Help Predict Firm-Level Earnings and Stock Returns?

The Accounting Review 2018 93(3), 25-57 open access
Prior research has examined how companies exploit Twitter in communicating with investors, and whether Twitter activity predicts the stock market as a whole. We test whether opinions of individuals tweeted just prior to a firm's earnings announcement predict its earnings and announcement returns. Using a broad sample from 2009 to 2012, we find that the aggregate opinion from individual tweets successfully predicts a firm's forthcoming quarterly earnings and announcement returns. These results hold for tweets that convey original information, as well as tweets that disseminate existing information, and are stronger for tweets providing information directly related to firm fundamentals and stock trading. Importantly, our results hold even after controlling for concurrent information or opinion from traditional media sources, and are stronger for firms in weaker information environments. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the aggregate opinion from individual tweets when assessing a stock's future prospects and value.