This paper shows the importance of correcting for sample selection when investing in illiquid assets that trade endogenously. Using a sample of 32,928 paintings that sold repeatedly between 1960 and 2013, we find an asymmetric V-shaped relation between sale probabilities and returns. Adjusting for the resulting selection bias reduces average annual index returns from 8.7% to 6.3%, lowers Sharpe ratios from 0.27 to 0.11, and materially impacts portfolio allocations. Investing in a broad portfolio of paintings is not attractive, but targeting specific styles or top-selling artists may add value. The methodology naturally extends to other asset classes.
Journal of Corporate Finance202062, 101576open access
The maturities of newly issued convertible bonds vary substantially over time. Firm-specific determinants of maturity from the straight debt literature are relevant for convertible bonds. However, the growth of the convertible arbitrage industry and the role of convertible arbitrage hedge funds have changed the importance of firm characteristics in the convertible bond market. Recently issued convertible bonds come with particularly short maturities that serve as substitutes for call provisions. This substitution implies that backdoor-equity and sequential-financing rationales for issuing callable convertible bonds are also applicable for non-callable convertibles with shorter maturities.
Cash settlements became a popular design feature in convertible securities once they obtained favorable accounting treatment for diluted earnings per share in 2002. The unexpected proliferation of cash settlements provoked the FASB to eliminate their favorable accounting treatment in 2008. We find that shareholders of firms that use cash-settled convertibles react negatively to the announcement of these recent changes. Firms that issued cash-settled convertible debt to avoid earnings dilution no longer have an incentive to keep them on their balance sheets. Consistent with this observation, we find that investors respond more favorably if the cash-settled convertibles of these firms include call features. We conclude that call features can be valuable in times of uncertainty related to possible accounting changes as they allow the firm to efficiently mitigate the effects of the accounting changes on their financial reporting.
This paper studies convertible security design for a sample of 814 issuers over the years 2000 through 2007. Using a nested logit model, we examine how firms choose fixed income claims and the method of payment. We find that fixed income claims are chosen to reduce corporate income taxes, minimize refinancing costs, and help mitigate managerial discretion costs. The method of payment choice frequently includes cash settlement features because they increase reported diluted earnings per share. Some of the cash settlement issuers also adopt other innovative financial strategies (share repurchase programs and call spread overlays) that inflate reported earnings per share. We find that firms needing debt capacity include mandatory conversion features.
Many initial public offerings (IPOs) are priced at exactly the high-end of the pricing range. Investing in IPOs priced at the high-end leads to first-day returns that are substantially higher than investing in IPOs that are priced just below or above the high-end. We argue that these results are in line with issuing firms settling for positively perceived salient pricing points in negotiations with underwriters.
Journal of Financial Intermediation201322(3), 464-481
Because bankruptcy is costly for employees, theoretical studies argue that firms with higher leverage have to pay their employees higher wages. In this paper we empirically test this prediction. We find that firm leverage is positively related to the wages of employees, both in the United States and in the Netherlands. In the United States, the positive relation between wages and leverage is strongest in the 21st century, which is a period that also shows a positive relation between wages and unemployment rates. We conclude that the human capital costs of bankruptcy are an important disadvantage of debt.
[By buying convertibles and shorting the underlying stock, hedge funds distribute equity exposure to well-diversified shareholders. We find that firms with characteristics that make seasoned equity offerings expensive are more likely to issue convertibles to hedge funds. We conclude that hedge funds provide opportunities for firms to issue convertible securities at a lower cost than seasoned equity by serving as relatively low-cost distributors of equity exposure. A higher fraction of a convertible is privately placed with hedge funds when institutional ownership, stock liquidity, issue size, concurrent stock repurchases, and limitations on callability suggest that shorting costs will be lower.]
Journal of Financial Intermediation202458, 101085open access
Buy-and-hedge intermediaries are important investors in the convertible bond market as they intermediate between firms that require capital quickly and investors requiring time to assess the security. Their strategy requires them to manage the trade-offs involved with the costs and benefits of hedging. We find that prices of convertible securities reflect the costs that intermediaries incur when managing their positions. Especially cross-sectional and within-bond variation of intermediaries’ loan costs helps explain variation in convertible bond underpricing.
Journal of Corporate Finance202065, 101745open access
This paper investigates the impact of investment characteristics on the financing choice. We investigate instances of seasoned equity, bank debt, straight non-bank debt, and convertible issues by U.S. firms where the stated use of proceeds is capital expenditure and where we are able to hand-collect and classify the characteristics of the investment. Controlling for a firm's existing assets, capital structure and valuation, we document a strong empirical link between an investment's characteristics and the choice between debt and equity financing. Factor analysis indicates that the principal determinant of the financing choice is whether an investment's payoffs can be described as a hit or miss.
We investigate the relation between sovereign and corporate bond issuance. Sovereign bond issues that increase a country’s maximum maturity are followed by increases in the maximum maturity of corporate issues. Our results point to issuance complementarities based on the benchmarking of corporate bonds to sovereign bonds. Sovereign and corporate bond issues are also substitutes, but substitutability requires the availability of a high-quality sovereign bond benchmark. By adding to existing theories focusing on substitutability, our findings highlight the role that the maturity of sovereign debt plays in capital market development.