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Asset Pricing in the Dark: The Cross-Section of OTC Stocks

Review of Financial Studies 2013 26(12), 2985-3028
[Over-the-counter (OTC) stocks are far less liquid, disclose less information, and exhibit lower institutional holdings than do listed stocks. We exploit these different market conditions to test theories of cross-sectional return premiums. Compared with premiums in listed markets, the OTC illiquidity premium is several times higher, the size, value, and volatility premiums are similar, and the momentum premium is three times lower. The OTC illiquidity, size, value, and volatility premiums are largest among stocks held predominantly by retail investors and those not disclosing financial information. Theories of differences in investors' opinions and limits on short sales help explain these return premiums.]

How Wise Are Crowds? Insights from Retail Orders and Stock Returns

Journal of Finance 2013 68(3), 1229-1265
We analyze the role of retail investors in stock pricing using a database uniquely suited for this purpose. The data allow us to address selection bias concerns and to separately examine aggressive (market) and passive (limit) orders. Both aggressive and passive net buying positively predict firms’ monthly stock returns with no evidence of return reversal. Only aggressive orders correctly predict firm news, including earnings surprises, suggesting they convey novel cash flow information. Only passive net buying follows negative returns, consistent with traders providing liquidity and benefiting from the reversal of transitory price movements. These actions contribute to market efficiency.

Asset Pricing in the Dark: The Cross-Section of OTC Stocks

Review of Financial Studies 2013 26(12), 2985-3028
Over-the-counter (OTC) stocks are far less liquid, disclose less information, and exhibit lower institutional holdings than do listed stocks. We exploit these different market conditions to test theories of cross-sectional return premiums. Compared with premiums in listed markets, the OTC illiquidity premium is several times higher, the size, value, and volatility premiums are similar, and the momentum premium is three times lower. The OTC illiquidity, size, value, and volatility premiums are largest among stocks held predominantly by retail investors and those not disclosing financial information. Theories of differences in investors' opinions and limits on short sales help explain these return premiums.