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Productivity and Quality in Health Care: Evidence from the Dialysis Industry

Review of Economic Studies 2016 84(3), rdw042
We show that healthcare providers face a tradeoff between increasing the number of patients they treat and improving their quality of care. To measure the magnitude of this quality-quantity tradeoff, we estimate a model of dialysis provision that explicitly incorporates a centre’s unobservable and endogenous choice of treatment quality while allowing for unobserved differences in productivity across centres. We find that a centre that reduces its quality standards such that its expected rate of septic infections increases by 1 percentage point can increase its patient load by 1.6%, holding productivity, capital, and labour fixed; this corresponds to an elasticity of quantity with respect to quality of -0.2. Notably, our approach provides estimates of productivity that control for differences in quality, whereas traditional methods would misattribute lower-quality care to greater productivity.

Borders, Geography, and Oligopoly: Evidence from the Wind Turbine Industry

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2015 97(3), 623-637
Using a microlevel data set of wind turbine installations in Denmark and Germany, we estimate a structural oligopoly model with cross-border trade and heterogeneous firms. Our approach separately identifies border-related from distance-related variable costs and bounds the fixed cost of exporting for each firm. In the data, firms’ market shares drop precipitously at the border. We find that 40% to 50% of the gap can be attributed to national border costs. Counterfactual analysis indicates that eliminating national border frictions would increase total welfare in the wind turbine industry by 4% in Denmark and 6% in Germany.

The Evolution of Market Power in the U.S. Automobile Industry

Quarterly Journal of Economics 2024 139(2), 1201-1253
We construct measures of industry performance and welfare in the U.S. automobile market from 1980 to 2018. We estimate a demand model using product-level data on market shares, prices, and attributes, and consumer-level data on demographics, purchases, and stated second choices. We estimate marginal costs assuming Nash-Bertrand pricing. We relate trends in consumer welfare and markups to trends in market structure and the composition of products. Although real prices rose, we find that markups decreased substantially, and the fraction of total surplus accruing to consumers increased. Consumer welfare increased over time due to improved product quality and improved production technology.

Strategic Patient Discharge: The Case of Long-Term Care Hospitals

American Economic Review 2018 108(11), 3232-3265 open access
Medicare's prospective payment system for long-term acute-care hospitals (LTCHs) provides modest reimbursements at the beginning of a patient's stay before jumping discontinuously to a large lump-sum payment after a prespecified number of days. We show that LTCHs respond to the financial incentives of this system by disproportionately discharging patients after they cross the large-payment threshold. We find this occurs more often at for-profit facilities, facilities acquired by leading LTCH chains, and facilities colocated with other hospitals. Using a dynamic structural model, we evaluate counterfactual payment policies that would provide substantial savings for Medicare.