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Markup Estimation using Production and Demand Data: An Application to the US Brewing Industry

Review of Economic Studies 2026
We compare and combine two distinct approaches to estimating market power in the US brewing industry—one based on production data, the other on demand. Both methods produce similar estimates of average markups and reveal a recent upward trend. We then combine the two approaches in two ways. First, we replace conventional instruments in demand estimation with a moment involving a production-based markup estimate, yielding similar results. We then evaluate the common (but controversial) assumption that retail markets operate competitively, finding that demand-based markups recovered with the assumption of competitive retail markets align with production-based estimates, as long as downstream costs are accounted for.

Improving Estimates of Transitions from Satellite Data: A Hidden Markov Model Approach

The Review of Economics and Statistics 2025 107(2), 426-441 open access
Satellite-based image classification facilitates low-cost measurement of the Earth’s surface composition. However, misclassified imagery can lead to misleading conclusions about transition processes. We propose a correction for transition rate estimates based on the econometric measurement error literature to extract the signal (truth) from its noisy measurement (satellite-based classifications). No ground-truth data are required in the implementation. Our proposed correction produces consistent estimates of transition rates, confirmed by longitudinal validation data, while transition rates without correction are severely biased. Using our approach, we show how eliminating deforestation in Brazil’s Atlantic forest region through 2040 could save $100 billion in CO2 emissions.

Market Structure, Investment, and Technical Efficiencies in Mobile Telecommunications

Journal of Political Economy 2025 133(5), 1401-1459 open access
We develop a model of competition in prices and infrastructure among mobile network operators. Although consolidation increases market power, it can lead to more efficient data transmission due to economies of scale, which we derive from physical principles. After estimating our model with French consumer and infrastructure data, equilibrium simulations reveal that while prices decrease with the number of firms, so do download speeds. Our framework also allows us to quantify the impact of spectrum allocation. The marginal social value of spectrum exceeds firms’ willingness to pay in our model as well as observed prices in spectrum auctions.