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Monetary Policy and Rational Asset Price Bubbles: Comment

American Economic Review 2019 109(5), 1969-1990 open access
We revisit Galí’s (2014 ) analysis by extending his model to incorporate persistent bubble shocks. We find that, under adaptive learning, a stable bubbly steady state and the associated sunspot solutions under optimal monetary policy are not E-stable. When deriving the unique forward-looking minimum stable variable (MSV ) solution around an unstable bubbly steady state, we obtain results that are consistent with the conventional views: leaning against the wind policy reduces bubble volatility and is optimal. Such a steady state and the associated MSV solution are E-stable. (JEL E13, E32, E44, E52, G12)

Financial Markets, the Real Economy, and Self‐Fulfilling Uncertainties

Journal of Finance 2019 74(3), 1503-1557
ABSTRACT We develop a model of informational interdependence between financial markets and the real economy, linking economic uncertainty to information production and aggregate economic activities in general equilibrium. The mutual learning between financial markets and the real economy creates a strategic complementarity in their information production, leading to self‐fulfilling surges in economic uncertainties. In a dynamic setting, our model characterizes self‐fulfilling uncertainty traps with two steady‐state equilibria and a two‐stage economic crisis in transitional dynamics.