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Is Economic Uncertainty a Valid Intertemporal CAPM State Variable?

The Review of Asset Pricing Studies 2022 12(4), 999-1040
This paper evaluates whether economic uncertainty is consistent with the Merton (1973) intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM) theory. The economic uncertainty index of Jurado, Ludvigson and Ng (2015) consistently predicts a significant increase in stock market volatility. However, its innovation carries a statistically insignificant price of covariance risk in the cross-section, thereby failing to satisfy the Maio and Santa-Clara (2012) sign restrictions associated with the ICAPM. I also find robust evidence by using the level of the economic uncertainty index