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Automobiles and the National Industrial Recovery Act: Evidence on Industry Complementarities

Quarterly Journal of Economics 1993 108(4), 1043-1071
This paper investigates the Automobile Industry code negotiated in 1933 and modified in 1935 under the National Industrial Recovery Act. The amended code contained a provision calling for automobile producers to alter the timing of new model introductions and the annual automobile show as a means of regularizing employment in the industry. Our analysis of this period provides evidence against the hypothesis that changes in fundamentals led to the dramatic changes in the seasonal pattern of production and sales starting in 1935. Instead, it appears that the National Industrial Recovery Act succeeded in coordinating activity on an alternative Nash equilibrium.

Strategic Complementarity in Business Formation: Aggregate Fluctuations and Sunspot Equilibria

Review of Economic Studies 1993 60(4), 795-811
The possibility of sunspot equilibria and endogenous cycles are explored in a two-sector overlapping-generations model with entry. It is shown that if prospective entrants act oligopolistically as producers but competitively as consumers then a strategic complementarity between the entry decisions of agents across sectors and across time may arise. If the complementarity is sufficiently strong, the economy will have multiple, Pareto-ranked steady states. Stationary sunspot equilibria can then be constructed as a randomization between allocations in the neighbourhood of the multiple steady states providing a source of aggregate fluctuations.